Sources and Methods of Historical Demography

PrefaceAcknowledgmentsI. Introduction 1. A Genealogy of Historical Demography The Methodologists Political Arithmetic The Theorists References II. Fundamental Source Materials 2. Sources of Prehistoric Demography Censusing Prehistoric Populations from Material Remains The Study of Prehistoric Vital Rates: Paleodemography Mortality Patterns Among Prehistoric Populations Population Growth in Prehistory Ethnographic Evidence of Population Control in Prehistory References 3. Parish Registers and Civil Registration Records The Development of Parish Registers The Contents of Parish Register Records on Individuals Historical Conditions Affecting the Quality of Parish Register Information Assessing the Quality of Small Sets of Vital Registration Records Assessing the Quality Of Large Sets of Vital Event Records Estimating and Correcting for the Underregistration of Vital Events Vital Registration Records and Historical Demography References 4. Enumerations and Censuses Enumerations in the Past Hearths and Households in Early Enumerations The Use of "One-Time" Enumerations An Example of a Regular Series of Early Enumeration Data: The Stati D'anime Assessing the Accuracy of Enumeration Data The Quality of Regular Series of Modern Censuses The Definition and Boundaries of Census Units Relationships Among Individuals Within Households Occupational Data from Census Records and the Analysis of Social Structure Census Data and the Study of Fertility References 5. Genealogies and Population Registers Types of Genealogies Some General Problems of Genealogical Sources Assessing the Quality of Genealogical Sources Dealing With Partial or Incomplete Data on Individuals The Significance of the Demographic Experience of Genealogical Populations Population Registers References 6. Organizational and Institutional Records Marriage Contracts Wills The Historical Demography of Institutional Populations ReferencesIII. Methods of Population Reconstruction and Analysis of Historical Sources 7. Record Linkage and the Study of Historical Communities as Relational Systems 167 Important Concepts for the Systems Theorist Regulation in Historical Demographic Systems Network Analysis References 8. Family Reconstitution and Household Structure Analysis The Logic of Automatic Family Reconstitution Calculating Demographic Rates from Family Reconstitution Data The Structure of Coresident Domestic Groups Dynamic Studies of Household Structure and Family Life Cycles References 9. Sampling in Historical Research Simple Random, Systematic, and Cluster Sampling Stratified and Multistage Sampling Sample Size References 10. Lexis Diagrams and Formal Demographic Indexes Lexis Diagrams Cohort and Period Indexes: Methodological Problems The Probability of First Marriages Fertility Rates in Marriage Cohorts Probabilities of Dying: The Life Table Interpreting Cohort Tables: Methodological Problems Migration and Multiregional Analysis Computer Programs References 11. Factor Analysis An Overview Stages in Factor Analyzing Historical Demographic Data Exploratory Factor Analysis Confirmatory Factor Analysis Comparison of Factor Structures Over Time Indeterminacy in Factor Analytical Solutions References 12. Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling and Cluster Analysis Creating Proximity Measures From Nonmetric to Metric Information The Dimensionality of mds Spaces Cluster Patterns in Multidimensional Scaling Spaces References 13. Regression and Time Series Modeling Regression Analysis: Preliminary Considerations Common Problems Encountered In Regression Analysis Regression with Nominal Variables Time Series: Preliminary Considerations Autocorrelation Analysis Trends Randomness in Time Series Moving Averages The Univariate Box-Jenkins Approach to Modeling a Time Series The Multivariate Box-Jenkins Approach to Modeling a Time Series Intervention Hypothesis Testing References 14. Log-Linear Modeling The Organization of Categorical Data The Odds Ratio Log-Linear Models Illustrative Example References 15. Computer Simulation of Historical Processes Developing a Model to Simulate Positive and Negative Feedback Structures Choosing a Simulation Language Causal Models in Dynamo Format Simulating Ramdomness in Causal Models References IV. Causal Model Building and Hypothesis Testing: Major Themes 16. Theory Construction And The Nature of Scientific Explanation The Nature of Scientific Hypotheses Explanation Sketches Models of Scientific Explanation Explanation Closure Explanation in Historical Research Causal Inferences from Historical Statistics Nonexperimental Causal Inference and Structural Models Problems in Drawing Valid Causal Inferences in Historical Demography Problems of Statistical Conclusion Validity Problems of Internal Validity The Problem of Construct Validity The Problem of External Validity Research Designs with Historical Data Quasi-Experimental Research Designs With Nonequivalent Groups References 17. Population Genetics Models The Historical Perspective of Population Genetics Genetic Structure Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium Kinship and Identity Coefficients Genetic Drift in Small Populations Selection Research Examples References 18. Biometrie Models A General Analytical Framework Birth Intervals and the Duration of the Nonsusceptible Period Natural Fertility The Relationships Between Changes in Fertility and Mortality References 19. Evolutionary-Ecological Models Evolutionary Theory Sociobiological Theory Ecological Theory The Concept of Stability Randomness in Ecological Settings Synthesizing Evolutionary and Ecological Theories Research Examples References 20. Socioeconomic Models A Framework for Demographic Model Building Within Historical Socioeconomic Contexts The Cultural Materialist Reformulation of Marx Structured Social Inequality Historical Demographic Perspectives on Social Mobility and Inequality Socioeconomic Models with Demographic Data References V. Conclusion 21. Historical Demography and "Total History" Recommended ReadingsAuthor Index Subject Index