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Predicting Future Oceans

Sustainability of Ocean and Human Systems Amidst Global Environmental Change

1st Edition - June 3, 2019

Editors: William Cheung, Yoshitaka Ota, Andres Cisneros-Montemayor

Paperback ISBN:

9 7 8 - 0 - 1 2 - 8 1 7 9 4 5 - 1

eBook ISBN:

9 7 8 - 0 - 1 2 - 8 1 7 9 4 6 - 8

Predicting Future Oceans: Sustainability of Ocean and Human Systems Amidst Global Environmental Change provides a synthesis of our knowledge of the future state of the oceans. The… Read more

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Predicting Future Oceans: Sustainability of Ocean and Human Systems Amidst Global Environmental Change provides a synthesis of our knowledge of the future state of the oceans. The editors undertake the challenge of integrating diverse perspectives—from oceanography to anthropology—to exhibit the changes in ecological conditions and their socioeconomic implications. Each contributing author provides a novel perspective, with the book as a whole collating scholarly understandings of future oceans and coastal communities across the world. The diverse perspectives, syntheses and state-of-the-art natural and social sciences contributions are led by past and current research fellows and principal investigators of the Nereus Program network.

This includes members at 17 leading research institutes, addressing themes such as oceanography, biodiversity, fisheries, mariculture production, economics, pollution, public health and marine policy.

This book is a comprehensive resource for senior undergraduate and postgraduate readers studying social and natural science, as well as practitioners working in the field of natural resources management and marine conservation.

Section 1: Predicting future oceans

1. Rethinking oceans as coupled human-natural systems to achieve sustainability
Yoshitaka Ota and William Cheung

Section 2: Changing ocean systems

2. Synthesis: Changing ocean systems
Jorge Sarmiento and Charles Stock

3. Drivers of fisheries production in complex social-ecological systems
Chris McOwen, Tom Spencer and Mike Bithell

4. Changing Seasonality of the Sea: Past, Present, and Future
Rebecca G. Asch

5. Extreme climate events in the oceans
Thomas Lukas Frölicher

6. Pathways of methylmercury accumulation in a changing ocean
Colin Thackray and Elsie Sunderland

7. Building confidence in projections of future ocean capacity
Tyler Eddy

8. Coastal upwelling and climate change
Ryan Ross Rykaczewski

Section 3: Changing marine ecosystems and biodiversity

9. Sythesis: Changing marine ecosystems and biodiversity
Didier Gascuel and William Cheung

10. Current and future biogeography of marine exploited groups under climate change
Gabriel Reygondeau

11. The role of cyclical oscillations in species distributions shifts under climate change
Sarah Roberts

12. Changing biomass flows in marine ecosystems: From the past to the future
Hubert du Pontavice

13. Jellyfishes in a changing ocean
Natasha Henschke

14. Understanding fisheries using time series data: importance and opportunities emerging from models of bottom up forcing
Fernando González Taboada

15. The Sea Around Us as provider of global fisheries catch and related marine biodiversity data to the Nereus Program and civil society
Daniel Pauly and William Cheung

16. Life history of marine fishes and their implications for the future oceans
Colleen M. Petrik

Section 4: Changing fisheries and seafood supply

17. Synthesis: Changing fisheries and seafood supply
Laurie Chan, William Cheung and Elsie Sunderland

18. Projecting fishing effort dynamics and the economics of fishing in the 21st century under climate change
Vicky Wing Yee Lam

19. Prospect of mariculture under climate change
Muhammed A. Oyinlola

20. Tourist seafood consumption's role in tourism adaptation in Pacific Island Countries for coastal food security under climate change
Colette Wabnitz

21. Integrating environmental information into stock assessment models for fisheries management
Kisei Tanaka

22. The future landscape of the global seafood market
Oai Li Chen

23. Climate change adaptations and spatial fisheries management
Rebecca Selden and Malin L. Pinsky

24. Climate Change, Contaminants, and Country Food: Collaborating with Communities to Promote Food Security in the Arctic
Tiff-Annie Kenny

Section 5: Changing social world of the ocean

25. Synthesis: Changing social world of the oceans
Yoshitaka Ota and Larry Crowder

26. The relevance of human rights to socially responsible seafood
Lydia Teh

27. The impact of environmental change on small-scale fishing communities: Moving beyond adaptive capacity to community response
Larry Crowder

28. Coastal Indigenous Peoples in global ocean governance
Andrés M. Cisneros-Montemayor and Yoshitaka Ota

29. The role of corporate social responsibility for ocean sustainability
Wilf Swartz

30. Ocean policy on the water – incorporating fishermen’s perspectives
Julia Grace Mason

31. Traditional ecological knowledge in displacement and migration
Marjo Kristiina Vierros and Yoshitaka Ota

32. Can aspirations lead us to the oceans we want?
Gerald Singh

Section 6: Governance and well-being in changing oceans

33. Synthesis: The opportunities of changing ocean governance for sustainability
Henrik Österblom

34. A Blue Economy: Equitable, Sustainable, and Viable Development in the World’s Oceans
Andrés M. Cisneros-Montemayor

35. Exploring the knowns and unknowns of international fishery conflicts
Jessica Spijkers

36. The future of mangrove fishing communities
Rachel Seary

37. The last commons: (Re)constructing an ocean future
Katherine Seto and Brooke Campbell

38. New actors, new possibilities, new challenges - Non-state actor participation in global fisheries management
Matilda Tove Petersson

39. Climate change vulnerability and ocean governance
Robert Blasiak

Section 7: Ocean governance beyond boundaries

40. Synthesis: The opportunities of changing ocean governance for sustainability with Erik
Erik Molenaar

41. Conserving the great blue "beyond." Incorporating the dynamic and connected nature of the open ocean in the biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction (BBNJ) negotiations
Daniel C. Dunn

42. Legitimacy as a resource for effective international marine management
Lisa Maria Dellmuth

43. Improving fisheries governance in a fragmented and decentralized world
Solène Alizée Guggisberg

44. The Trouble with Tunas: International Fisheries Science and Policy in an Uncertain Future
Andre Boustany

45. The road to implementing an ecosystem-based approach to high seas fisheries management
Guillermo Ortuno Crespo Ortuno Crespo

46. Ocean Pollution in an Era of Changing Oceans and Climate Change: Towards Ocean Conservation Solutions
Juan Jose Alava

47. Beyond prediction: Radical Ocean Futures– A science fiction prototyping approach to imagining our future oceans
Andrew Sean Merrie

Section 8: Conclusion

48. Future pathways for the oceans considering climate change and social equity
Yoshitaka Ota and William Cheung

William Cheung

Dr. William Cheung is Associate Professor in the Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries at the University of British Columbia, and Director (Science) of the Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program. He is an internationally-recognized expert in the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and fisheries, and is a lead author for the Fifth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and coordinating lead author for the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in the Changing Climate. Dr. Cheung has published over 100 peer-reviewed articles, and is the 2017 laureate of the Prix’d Excellence Award of the International Council for the Exploration of the Seas for his contributions to marine sciences.

Affiliations and expertise

Associate Professor, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada

Yoshitaka Ota

Dr. Yoshitaka Ota is Research Assistant Professor in the School of Marine and Environmental Affairs at the University of Washington, and Director (Policy) of the Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program. Yoshitaka Ota has a background in social anthropology at the University College London. Dr. Ota has conducted ethnographic research on various coastal communities, including Palau, UK, Indonesia and Japan, studying the socialization and cultural meanings associated with fishing practices. For the last ten years, he has been engaged in policy research involving coastal indigenous communities, marine spatial planning and human security. Dr. Ota also is the Director (Policy) of the Nippon Foundation Nereus Program, an international initiative comprising an interdisciplinary team of 20 institutes. His core research interest is to understand how to strengthen social equity in ocean governance while we face global environmental changes. His unit consists of a team of cross-disciplinary scholars.

Affiliations and expertise

Assistant Professor, School of Marine and Environmental Affairs, University of Washington, USA

Andres Cisneros-Montemayor

Dr. Andrés Cisneros-Montemayor is a marine resource economist specializing in complex social-ecological systems, particularly in developing regions. This includes estimating the social and economic benefits of ecotourism and artisanal fisheries, anticipating ecological and social impacts and challenges, and finding best strategies to achieve equitable and inclusive sustainable development.

Affiliations and expertise

Research Associate at the Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Program Manager of the Nippon Foundation Nereus Program