Intuitive Predictions and Professional Forecasts

Section headings: Intuition, Lay Predictions and Professional Forecasts. The role of prediction in daily life. Lay predictions and professional forecasts. Intuition and prediction. The intuitive core of professional forecasts. Or: Why do we need a social pyschology of prediction? Social Psychological Theories of Prediction. Early attempts: prediction as an interaction of situational characteristics and individual factors. The role of cognitive structures and processes in predicting: Tversky and Kahneman's heuristics concept. Contributions of other modern judgement research. Laboratory vs 'real world' use of heuristics. Expanding and Testing Modern Concepts for Prediction. Part 1: Individual factors and prediction. Part 2: From individual predictions to professional forecasts. The Relevance of Psychological Concepts to the Problem of Prediction. The credibility of predictions. How to evaluate predictions? Integrating theoretical concepts. References. Index.