Dynamic Accident Modeling and Risk Management of Urban Natural Gas Pipelines

Part I. Foundations and Context

1. Introduction

1.1 Background and Significance

1.2 Current Status of Research on Accident-Evolution Modeling

1.3 Current Status of Research on Intelligent Monitoring and Diagnosis

1.4 Current Status of Research on Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management

1.5 Organization of This Book’s


2. Accidents Investigation of Urban Natural Gas Pipelines

2.1 Characteristics of Urban Gas Pipelines

2.2 Analysis of Domestic Gas Pipeline Accidents

2.2.1 General overview of gas accidents

2.2.2 Temporal distribution characteristics of gas accidents

2.3 Risk Analysis of Urban Gas Pipeline Accidents

2.3.1 Cause analysis of pipeline leak accidents

2.3.2 Causal chain and derivative disaster evolution of gas pipeline accidents

Part II. Accident Evolution Modeling

3. Evolution Path for Urban Natural Gas Pipeline Accidents

3.1 Accident evolution mechanism of urban natural gas pipelines

3.2 Stochastic Petri net modeling of accident evolution

3.3 Bayesian updating of SPN for slow-developing accident events


4. Modeling of pipeline leak and resulting gas dispersion in urban semi-closed space

4.1 Modeling of natural gas pipeline leakage

4.1.1 Effects of aperture shape and size on leak characteristics

4.1.2 Effects of gap-type leakage

4.2 Natural gas dispersion in semi-closed space

4.2.1 Model setup and boundary conditions

4.2.2 Dispersion characteristics under different leak scenarios


5. Risk Area Classification of Flammable Gas Dispersion

5.1 Scenario construction for flammable gas release in NGDS

5.2 CFD-based dispersion modeling

5.3 Probability-weighted risk area classification methodology


6. Explosion Modeling of Natural Gas Pipeline Leak

6.1 Explosion scenario modeling of leaked combustible gas

6.2 Dynamic response analysis of adjacent buildings

6.3 Damage characteristics under different gas filling conditions

Part III. Intelligent Monitoring and Diagnosis

7. Intelligent Leak Detection and Monitoring Technologies

7.1 Sensor data preprocessing and anomaly identification

7.2 Semi-supervised GAN-based leak monitoring framework

7.3 Performance evaluation of intelligent monitoring models


8. Intelligent Leak Diagnosis of Urban Natural Gas Pipeline Using Monitoring Data of Sensor Array

8.1 Methodology of hybrid deep learning-based leak diagnosis

8.2 Case Study

8.2.1 Dataset construction

8.2.2 Sample partitioning and input–output determination

Part IV. Dynamic Risk Assessment and Management

9. Vulnerability Assessment of Natural Gas Pipelines Considering Accident Loadings

9.1 Identification of accident escalation nodes

9.2 Copula Bayesian network modeling

9.3 Vulnerability visualization and weakness identification


10. Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Urban Gas Pipeline Accidents

10.1 Bayesian network modeling of pipeline failure

10.2 Accident consequence evolution modeling using ESD

10.3 Influence diagram-based risk control decision analysis


11. Risk Management Based on Evaluation Index System

11.1 Construction of risk evaluation index system

11.2 Fuzzy TOPSIS-based hazard prioritization

11.3 Risk management decision-making framework


12. Optimal Strategy for Risk Management of Urban Natural Gas Pipelines

12.1 Static game modeling of stakeholder participation

12.2 Evolutionary game modeling based on system dynamics

12.3 Optimization of collaborative risk management strategies