Climate Vulnerability

Editor-in-Chief

Volume Editors

List of Contributors

Preface

Volume 1: Vulnerability of Human Health to Climate

Preface

Cross-cutting Threats to Human Health and Healthcare Systems

1.01. Extreme Weather Events

1.01.1 Introduction

1.01.2 Extreme Weather Event Effects on Human Health

1.01.3 At-Risk Populations

1.01.4 Temperature Extremes

1.01.5 Extreme Precipitation Events

1.01.6 Extreme Wind Events

1.01.7 Health Care Infrastructure and Emergency Preparedness

1.01.8 Opportunities and Challenges for the Future

References

1.02. Recognizing and Reducing the Threats to Human Health and Environmental Ecosystems from Stratospheric Ozone Depletion

1.02.1 Introduction

1.02.2 Atmospheric Chemistry and the Ozone Cycle

1.02.3 The Chronology of Stratospheric Ozone Depletion

1.02.4 Direct versus Indirect Human Health Effects of Ozone Depletion

1.02.5 Ecosystem Effects of Excessive Ultraviolet Radiation

1.02.6 Human Adaptive Strategies for Ozone Depletion and Excessive Ultraviolet Radiation

1.02.7 Mitigation Strategies for Stratospheric Ozone Depletion

1.02.8 Conclusions

References

1.03. Sea-Level Rise and Health

Glossary

1.03.1 Introduction

1.03.2 Risk-Based Approach to the Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Human Health

1.03.3 Sea-Level Hazards

1.03.4 The Assets and Their Vulnerability

1.03.5 Risk Assessment

1.03.6 Conclusions

References

1.04. Impact of Environmental Change on Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being in Africa

Glossary

1.04.1 Introduction

1.04.2 Environmental and Social Circumstances in Africa

1.04.3 The Impact of Drought in Africa

1.04.4 Land Use and Land Cover Change

1.04.5 Invasive Species

1.04.6 Historical Trajectories and Counter Narratives

1.04.7 Future Research Challenges

References

Relevant Websites

1.05. Ecosystems, Biodiversity, Climate, and Health

Glossary

1.05.1 Introduction: Our Growing Disconnection from Nature

1.05.2 Psychological Benefits of Exposure to Nature

1.05.3 Sacred Groves and Risks to the Sacred

1.05.4 Ecosystem Services

1.05.5 Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services

1.05.6 Conclusion

References

Relevant Websites

Climate Change Health Effects, Risks & Impacts

1.06. What Have We Learned about Climate Variability and Human Health?

1.06.1 Introduction

1.06.2 Social Vulnerability to Climate and Other Ongoing Changes

1.06.3 Climate and Human Health

1.06.4 Water and Human Health

1.06.5 Human Health, Food, and Nutrition

1.06.6 Heat Waves

1.06.7 Vector-Borne Disease

1.06.8 Methods

1.06.9 Results and Discussion

1.06.10 Conclusions

References

1.07. Food, Nutrition, and Public Health

1.07.1 Introduction

1.07.2 Malnutrition

1.07.3 The Impacts of Social, Environmental, and Economic Determinants on Food, Nutrition, and Public Health

1.07.4 Food Security

1.07.5 Impacts on Agriculture

1.07.6 Water and Agriculture

1.07.7 Potential Risk of Temperature and Precipitation Changes on Agriculture: the Example of India

1.07.8 Inequalities in Food Security

1.07.9 Fish Stocks

1.07.10 Livestock

1.07.11 International Policy Impacts

1.07.12 Food Safety

1.07.13 Vulnerability and Adaptation

1.07.14 Regional Sensitivity

1.07.15 The Role of Farmers in Adaptation and Mitigation

References

1.08. Heat-Related Mortality

1.08.1 Introduction

1.08.2 Heat Waves and Their Impact on Health

1.08.3 Methods for Characterizing the Temperature–Health Relationship

1.08.4 Determinants of Vulnerability to Heat-Related Mortality

1.08.5 Risk Assessment for Current and Future Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality

1.08.6 Implications for Public Health and Environmental Policy

1.08.7 Conclusions

See also

References

Relevant Websites

1.09. Climate, Urban Air Pollution, and Respiratory Allergy

1.09.1 Introduction

1.09.2 Pollen and Allergic Respiratory Diseases

1.09.3 Air Pollution and Allergic Respiratory Diseases

1.09.4 Possible Effects of Climate on Respiratory Allergy

1.09.5 Case Study: ‘Thunderstorm Asthma’

1.09.6 Conclusions

References

1.10. Precipitation and Flood Hazards: Health Effects, Risks, and Impacts

1.10.1 Precipitation and Flood Risk

1.10.2 Health Impacts of Floods and High Rainfall

1.10.3 Health Impacts of Low Rainfall

References

1.11. HIV/AIDS Disease Burden Complex in South Africa: Impact on Health and Environmental Resources, and Vulnerability to Climate

1.11.1 Introduction

1.11.2 Characteristics of South Africa’s History That Lend Itself Favorably to the Spread of HIV and Urban and Rural Environmental Sensitivity

1.11.3 Multiple Ramifications of HIV Disease Burden Complex

1.11.4 Concepts of Vulnerability in the Context of HIV and Climate

1.11.5 Origin of HIV and Its Propagation in Context of Changing Human Demographics and Environmental Vulnerabilities

1.11.6 Characteristics of the Key Preconditions Contributing to Current Vulnerabilities in South Africa, Status and Trends

1.11.7 HIV-Induced Human and Environmental Vulnerabilities and Effects of Climate

1.11.8 Adaptation

1.11.9 Conclusion

Acknowledgments

References

1.12. Occupational Health and Safety Impacts of Climate Conditions

Glossary

1.12.1 Introduction

1.12.2 Current Climate and Ongoing Climate Trends

1.12.3 Different Occupational Health Effects of Climate Variables

1.12.4 Excessive Heat Exposure as a Special Occupational Health Hazard

1.12.5 Occupational Health and Productivity Effects of Heat Exposures

1.12.6 Measuring Heat Stress and Strain

1.12.7 Occupational Health Standards and Guidelines

1.12.8 Reported Experiences of Workplace Heat Exposures and Effects

1.12.9 Estimated Impacts on Occupational Health of a Subset of Projected Future Climate Change with Increasing Heat Exposures

1.12.10 Methods to Reduce Heat Exposures and Effects

1.12.11 Conclusions

See also

References and Proposed Additional Reading

Relevant Websites

1.13. Cold-Related Mortality and Morbidity

1.13.1 Introduction

1.13.2 Cold-Related Health

1.13.3 Risk Factors for Cold-Related Mortality and Morbidity

1.13.4 Adaptations

1.13.5 Implications of Public Health Policy

1.13.6 Conclusions

References

Useful Websites

Case Studies: Addressing Vulnerabilities and Reducing Risks

1.14. Vulnerable States: Pacific Island Countries

Glossary

1.14.1 Introduction

1.14.2 Climate Change: Determinants of Vulnerability

1.14.3 Pacific Island Exposure to Climate Change

1.14.4 Pacific Island Sensitivity to Climate Change

1.14.5 Pacific Island Potential Impacts of Climate Change

1.14.6 Pacific Island Adaptive Capacity

1.14.7 Pacific Island Vulnerability to Climate Change

1.14.8 Case Study: Food Security – Linking the Food, Nutrition, Health, and Climate Nexus in Vulnerable Countries – The Pacific Islands

1.14.9 Summary

1.14.10 Adaptive Strategies

See also

References

Relevant Websites

1.15. Vulnerability and Health: Exploring the Linkages in a Case Study from Southern Africa

1.15.1 Introduction

1.15.2 Vulnerability to Climate

1.15.3 Climate and Health

1.15.4 Health and Vulnerability to Climate

1.15.5 A Case Study from Southern Africa

1.15.6 Conclusion

References

Relevant Websites

Volume 2: Vulnerability of Food Resources to Climate

Preface

Crop Agriculture

2.01. Advances, Vulnerabilities, and Opportunities for Corn: A Perspective from Iowa

2.01.1 Introduction

2.01.2 Advances in Corn Production in the US Corn Belt

2.01.3 Vulnerabilities

2.01.4 Opportunities and Concerns

References

2.02. Soybean

2.02.1 Introduction

2.02.2 Background

2.02.3 Warming Temperature

2.02.4 Drought

2.02.5 Atmospheric CO2

2.02.6 Tropospheric Ozone

2.02.7 Climate Factor Interactions and Yield

2.02.8 Conclusion

References

2.03. Climate Impact Analysis and Adaptations for Sustainable Rice Production System

2.03.1 Introduction

2.03.2 Constraints in Rice Production

2.03.3 Use of Crop Models for Yield Prediction

2.03.4 Climate Adaptation

2.03.5 Water Management

References

2.04. Understanding the Impacts of Climate on Perennial Crops

Glossary

2.04.1 Introduction

2.04.2 Climate Vulnerability of Perennial Crop Production

2.04.3 Nonclimatic Contributions to Vulnerability

2.04.4 Methods and Models for Assessing Climate Impacts on Perennial Crops

2.04.5 Perennial Crop Production and Historical Climate Variability

2.04.6 CO2 Fertilization

2.04.7 Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Perennial Crops

2.04.8 Adaptation Options

2.04.9 Next Steps

2.04.10 Summary

Acknowledgments

References

Relevant Websites

2.05. Role of Engineering Plants for Abiotic Stresses

Glossary

2.05.1 Plant Breeding: A Science for Change

2.05.2 Climatic Impacts on Crops

2.05.3 Advancements in Engineering Plants for Tolerance to Abiotic Stresses

2.05.4 Challenges of Breeding for Climate Variability

References

Relevant Websites

2.06. Climate Vulnerabilities and Wheat Production

Glossary

2.06.1 Introduction

2.06.2 Climate across Wheat Megaenvironments

2.06.3 Climate and Wheat Production in China

2.06.4 Climate and Wheat Production in India

2.06.5 Conclusion

References

Fishery and Animal Agriculture

2.07. International Fisheries and Climate Change

References

2.08. Climate Vulnerabilities of the Poultry Industry

2.08.1 Introduction

2.08.2 Contribution to Climate

2.08.3 Vulnerabilities

2.08.4 Resource Competition

2.08.5 Diseases and Pests

2.08.6 Mitigation Opportunities

2.08.7 Conclusion

References

Relevant Websites

2.09. Climate Vulnerabilities of the Swine Industry

2.09.1 Introduction

2.09.2 GHG Emissions

2.09.3 Disease

2.09.4 Reactive Nitrogen Loss during Swine Production and Waste Management

2.09.5 Diet Implications

2.09.6 Mitigation Opportunities

2.09.7 Conclusion

References

International

2.10. Vulnerability of Mediterranean Agricultural Systems to Climate: From Regional to Field Scale Analysis

2.10.1 Introduction

2.10.2 Climate in the Mediterranean Region

2.10.3 The Impacts on Water and Soil Resources

2.10.4 Farmers’ Responses to Climate

2.10.5 The Effects on Cropping Systems

2.10.6 Conclusion

References

Relevant Websites

2.11. Freshwater Wetlands: Balancing Food and Water Security with Resilience of Ecological and Social Systems

2.11.1 Introduction

2.11.2 Wetlands as Complex Systems

2.11.3 Wetlands: Functions and Services

2.11.4 Policies to Prevent Wetland Losses: US Case Study

2.11.5 Paths to Wetland Restoration

2.11.6 Summary

References

Agroeconomies Case Studies

2.12. Food Security Implications of Climate Variability and Climate Change

2.12.1 Introduction

2.12.2 Methods

2.12.3 Results

Acknowledgments

References

2.13. Assessing Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Approaches: Useful to Usable Tools

2.13.1 Introduction

2.13.2 Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity

2.13.3 Literature Review: Vulnerability, Adaptive Capacity, and Climate Information

2.13.4 Assessing Vulnerabilities and Adaptive Capacities

2.13.5 Methods

2.13.6 Case Study: Understanding Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity to Enhance Usability of Climate Information in the North Central Region of the United States

2.13.7 Conclusion

References

2.14. Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to Climate Change

Glossary

2.14.1 Introduction

2.14.2 Profile of Agriculture Sector in India

2.14.3 Existing Vulnerabilities

2.14.4 Impacts of Climate on Agriculture

2.14.5 Strategies for Adaptation and Mitigation

2.14.6 Concluding Remarks

References

Relevant Websites

2.15. Response of the Amazon Tropical Forests to Deforestation, Climate, and Extremes, and the Occurrence of Drought and Fire

2.15.1 Introduction

2.15.2 Deforestation

2.15.3 Climate

2.15.4 Climate Extreme Events and Forest Response

2.15.5 Factors of Forest Resilience

2.15.6 Changes in the Equilibrium State – Savannization

2.15.7 Synergistic Effect of Deforestation, Drought, and Fire – Are We Close to a Tipping Point?

2.15.8 Conclusions

References

2.16. Blending Local Scale Information for Developing Agricultural Resilience in Ethiopia

2.16.1 Introduction

2.16.2 Methods and Data

2.16.3 Results

2.16.4 Summary and Discussion

References

Volume 3: Vulnerability of Energy to Climate

Energy Resources and Policy Under Climate Change Conditions

Preface

Resources and Resource Availability

3.01. Climate and Energy Vulnerability in Coastal Regions: The Case for US Pacific and Northeast Corridor Coastal Regions

Glossary

3.01 Introduction

3.01.2 Energy Trends in California

3.01.3 Energy Demand Trends in the Northeast Corridor

3.01.4 Temperature Trends Analysis

3.01.5 Summary

Acknowledgments

References

3.02. Energy Resources and Policy: Vulnerability of Energy Resources and Resource Availability – Fossil Fuels (Oil, Coal, Natural Gas, Oil Shale)

3.02.1 Introduction

3.02.2 Vulnerability to Temperature Change

3.02.3 Weather Extremes

3.02.4 Sea Level Rise

3.02.5 Mitigation Strategies

3.02.6 Adaptation

3.02.7 Social Impacts

3.02.8 Systemic Impacts

3.02.9 Conclusions

References

3.03. Renewable Energy Resources – Onshore/Offshore Wind Energy

Glossary

3.03.1 Introduction

3.03.2 The Wind Resource and Related Electrical Power Generation

3.03.3 The Technological and Policy-Related Challenges for Wind Energy Integration

3.03.4 Climate and Wind Energy

3.03.5 Conclusions

References

Relevant Websites

3.04. Renewable Energy Resources – Ocean Energy: Wind–Wave–Tidal–Sea Currents

Glossary

3.04.1 Introduction and Objectives of This Chapter

3.04.2 Resource Estimates and Status of Deployment

3.04.3 How Might Changes in Climate Statistics Influence Ocean Renewable Energy?

3.04.4 Concluding Remarks

Acknowledgments

References

3.05. Biomass

3.05.1 Introduction

3.05.2 Rationale for Biofuels

3.05.3 Sources of Biofuels

3.05.4 Biofuels and Climate

3.05.5 Summary

References

3.06. Vulnerability of Solar Energy Resources under Climate Variability

3.06.1 Introduction

3.06.2 Energy Is Key

3.06.3 Energy Scope

3.06.4 Uncertainty Scope

3.06.5 Climate Effects Scope

3.06.6 Analysis

3.06.7 Methods

3.06.8 Conclusion

Acknowledgments

References

Energy Production, Conversion, Transmission & Distribution, Policy, Planning and Mitigation Processes – General Considerations

3.07. Energy Production, Conversion, Transmission, and Distribution, Policy, Planning, and Mitigation Process – General Considerations: Infrastructure Vulnerability and Climate

Glossary

3.07.1 Introduction

3.07.2 Some Facts about Energy Infrastructure and Methodological Assessments

3.07.3 Climate, Vulnerability, and Energy

3.07.4 Hazards and Disasters

3.07.5 Disaster Databases and Methods for Estimation of Disasters

3.07.6 Precautionary Disaster Policy and the Great East Japan Earthquake

3.07.7 A Survey of Sustainability, Sustainable Development, and Sustainability Science

3.07.8 The IPCC, the Stern Review, and a Critique of Top-Down Modeling

3.07.9 Future Studies in Energy

3.07.10 Conclusions

References

Relevant Websites

3.08. Climate and Energy Production – A Climate Services Perspective

3.08.1 Introduction

3.08.2 Climate Services Framework

3.08.3 Potential Climate Impact on Energy Production

References

3.09. Energy Market Fundamentals

3.09.1 Energy Market Overview

3.09.2 Key Energy Market Models

3.09.3 The Zonal Energy Market Architecture

3.09.4 The Nodal Energy Market Architecture

3.09.5 Transmission Rights Models

3.09.6 Energy Markets Trends

3.09.7 Conclusion

References

3.10. Energy Networks

Glossary

3.10.1 Introduction

3.10.2 Introduction to Electricity Networks and Fuel Pipelines Infrastructure

3.10.3 Vulnerability to Climate Variability Phenomena

3.10.4 The Role of Electricity Networks in Mitigating Human Impact on Climate Variability

3.10.5 Suggestions

References

3.11. Renewable Energy and Water Resources

Glossary

3.11.1 Introduction

3.11.2 Renewable Energy Sources

3.11.3 Water and Water Scarcity

3.11.4 Desalination of Seawater

3.11.5 Concentrating Solar Power

3.11.6 CSP for the Cogeneration of Electricity and Desalinated Seawater

3.11.7 Conclusions

References

3.12. Energy Buildings and Urban Environment

Glossary

3.12.1 Introduction

3.12.2 Components of Building Energy Consumption

3.12.3 Factors Influencing Building Energy Use

3.12.4 Adverse Effects of Energy Consumption in Buildings

3.12.5 Strategies for Sustainable Urban Development

3.12.6 Vulnerabilities and Opportunities Moving Forward

References

3.13. Transportation and Energy

Glossary

3.13.1 Introduction

3.13.2 Energy Consumption by Transportation

3.13.3 Air Pollution and Climate

3.13.4 Mitigation Actions

3.13.5 The State of Things and the Future Potential

3.13.6 Conclusions

References

Relevant Websites

3.14. Energy Production, Conversion, Transmission and Distribution, Policy, Planning, and Mitigation Processes – General Considerations: Large Energy Projects, Efficiency, and Vulnerability

3.14.1 Introduction

3.14.2 Vulnerability to Climate Variability

3.14.3 Conclusions

References

3.15. Transmission Grid Fundamentals

3.15.1 Transmission Grid Overview

3.15.2 Transmission Grid Modeling

3.15.3 The Longer-Term Transmission Grid Problem

3.15.4 Incentives for Transmission Investments

3.15.5 A Vision for Transmission

References

Appendix A Fundamentals: Concepts of Electric Power Systems

Appendix B Electric Power System Structure

Appendix C Fundamentals of Transmission Networks

Volume 4: Vulnerability of Ecosystems to Climate

Preface

Understanding and Addressing Threats to Essential Resources

4.01. Overview of Ecosystem Functions and Services: Their Importance and Vulnerability

4.01.1 Introduction

4.01.2 Vulnerability, Resilience, Sustainability, and Stewardship of Ecosystem Services

4.01.3 Supporting Services: Sustaining Ecosystem Functioning

4.01.4 Ecosystem Stewardship and Sustainability: Where and When Will Ecosystem Services Be Most Vulnerable?

References

Threats to Ecosystem Services

4.02. Impacts of Land-Use Change to Ecosystem Services

Glossary

4.02.1 Introduction

4.02.2 The Increasing Urban Footprint

4.02.3 Invasive Species and Ecosystem Services

4.02.4 Additional Effects of Land-Use Change

4.02.5 Challenges and Solutions

See also

References

Relevant Websites

4.03. Connecting Nitrogen Deposition and Ecosystem Services

Glossary

4.03.1 Introduction

4.03.2 Defining an Ecosystem Services Approach

4.03.3 Connecting Effects on Ecosystem Structure and Function to Ecosystem Services

4.03.4 Current and Future Trends in N Deposition and Effects on Ecosystem Services: Recovery and Future Research Needs

4.03.5 Continued Science Needs in Understanding the Impacts of N Deposition on Ecosystem Services

Acknowledgments

References

Relevant Websites

4.04. Effects of Carbon Dioxide Enrichment on Plants

Glossary

4.04.1 Introduction

4.04.2 Effects of Elevated CO2 on Plants

4.04.3 Potential Threats to Ecosystem Services from Elevated CO2

4.04.4 Summary

See also

References

Relevant Websites

4.05. Invasive Plants and Animal Species: Threats to Ecosystem Services

4.05.1 Introduction

4.05.2 Impacts of Invasive Species on Ecosystem Services

4.05.3 Looking Ahead: Climate and Its Effects on Invasive Plants and Animals

4.05.4 Conclusion

References

4.06. Does Climate Change Increase the Risk of Disease? Analyzing Published Literature to Detect Climate–Disease Interactions

Glossary

4.06.1 Introduction

4.06.2 Challenges Inherent to Detecting a Climate-Driven Signal in Infectious Diseases

4.06.3 A Retrospective Literature Analysis of Climate Change and Disease

4.06.4 Future Research Directions

4.06.5 Conclusion

Acknowledgments

References

Relevant Websites

4.07. Extreme Climatic Events

Glossary

4.07.1 Introduction

4.07.2 The Emerging Field of Climate Extremes Research

4.07.3 Ecosystem Impacts of Climate Extremes

4.07.4 Definitions of Climate Extremes, Extreme Ecological Responses, and ECEs

4.07.5 Application of the ECE Framework

4.07.6 The Rarity of ECEs

4.07.7 Ecosystem Sensitivity to ECEs

4.07.8 Future Directions of Climate Extremes Research

4.07.9 Conclusions

Acknowledgments

References

Ecosystem Functions and Services

4.08. Ecosystem Services of Energy Exchange and Regulation

Glossary

4.08.1 Introduction

4.08.2 First Principles

4.08.3 Sensitivity to Environmental Stress

4.08.4 What Are Current Trends in Climate-Induced Changes in Mass and Energy Exchange?

4.08.5 Policy/Stakeholder Recommendations

References

4.09. Carbon Storage in Terrestrial Ecosystems

4.09.1 The Climate Regulation Ecosystem Service

4.09.2 What Controls the Magnitude of the Service?

4.09.3 Thresholds and Tipping Points

4.09.4 Vulnerability of the Terrestrial Climate Regulation Service to Climate

4.09.5 Ways of Reducing Vulnerability

4.09.6 Trade-Offs between Climate Regulations and Other Ecosystem Services

4.09.7 Conclusions

References

4.10. Vulnerability of Agroecosystems to Environmental Factors

4.10.1 Introduction

4.10.2 Food Security

4.10.3 Water Security

4.10.4 Adaptation of Agroecosystems to Climate

4.10.5 Policy Implications for Agriculture

4.10.6 Conclusions

References

4.11. Vulnerability of Pollination Ecosystem Services

Glossary

4.11.1 Ecological Interactions

4.11.2 Ecosystem Service Changes

4.11.3 Mitigation Possibilities

4.11.4 Conclusions and Policy and Management Implications

References

4.12. Controls on Provisioning Services and Forest Productivity: Responses and Risk under Changing Environmental Conditions

4.12.1 Introduction

4.12.2 Environmental Changes and Productivity Responses

4.12.3 Evaluating Risks to Forest Productivity

4.12.4 Adaptation/Mitigation Options

References

4.13. Social–Ecological Vulnerability of Grassland Ecosystems

4.13.1 Introduction

4.13.2 Background

4.13.3 Great Plains

4.13.4 Mongolian Example

4.13.5 Coping Strategies

4.13.6 East Africa Example

4.13.7 Monitoring and Assessment Strategies for Grassland Ecosystems

4.13.8 Opportunities and Challenges for Managing for Change in Grassland Systems

4.13.9 Summary

References

4.14. Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Ecosystems

Glossary

4.14.1 Introduction

4.14.2 A Risk-Based Approach to Mitigation and Adaptation

4.14.3 The Hazards: Sea-Level Change and Coastal Protections

4.14.4 The Assets: Coastal Ecosystems and Their Services

4.14.5 Vulnerabilities: Impact of Sea-Level Change and Coastal Protection on Coastal Ecosystems

4.14.6 Risk Assessments

4.14.7 Adaptation and Mitigation – Recommendations

References

4.15. The Vulnerability of Biodiversity to Rapid Climate Change

Glossary

4.15.1 Introduction

4.15.2 Outlooks for Future Environments

4.15.3 Nature of Biotic Vulnerability

4.15.4 Implications for Biodiversity Conservation: Fundamentals, Uncertainties, and Planning

Acknowledgments

See also

References

4.16. Biodiversity – Marine Food-Web Structure, Stability, and Regime Shifts

4.16.1 Introduction

4.16.2 Biodiversity and Temperature

4.16.3 Diversity versus Stability – a Long Debate

4.16.4 The Vulnerability of Ecosystem Stability and Regime Shifts

4.16.5 Regime Shifts and the Vulnerability of Marine Ecosystems to Climate

4.16.6 Outlook

Acknowledgments

References

4.17. Terrestrial Food Webs and Vulnerability of the Structure and Functioning of Ecosystems to Climate

Glossary

4.17.1 Introduction

4.17.2 Food Webs and Ecosystem Services

4.17.3 Climate and Ecosystem Structure and Functioning

4.17.4 Possibilities for Climate Effects to Alter Ecosystem Function

4.17.5 Policy Actions to Minimize or Eliminate the Negative Consequences of Climate Effects

References

4.18. The Vulnerability of Tourism and Recreation to Climate Change

4.18.1 Introduction: Scope and Scale

4.18.2 Components and Sources of Vulnerability

4.18.3 Destinations

4.18.4 Tourists

4.18.5 Enterprises

4.18.6 Most Vulnerable Subsectors

4.18.7 Priorities for Future Research

4.18.8 Conclusions

References

4.19. Assessing Cumulative Risks to Ecosystem Function: Expectations and Realities of Environmental Change Interaction Effects

4.19.1 Introduction

4.19.2 Direct and Indirect Effects of Environmental Change on Ecosystem Functioning

4.19.3 The Importance of Environmental Context for Biodiversity Effects on Functioning

4.19.4 Functional Response Traits and Functional Assembly within Communities

4.19.5 Environmental Changes Select for Functionally Important Traits: Examples

4.19.6 Linking Response with Effect Traits

4.19.7 Response Diversity and the Possibility of Co-Tolerance

4.19.8 Evidence of Interactions among Drivers

4.19.9 Conclusions and Implications

References

Case Studies: Vulnerability to Cumulative Threats

4.20. Desertification of Rangelands

Glossary

4.20.1 Introduction

4.20.2 Effects of Desertification on Ecosystem Services

4.20.3 Potential Actions for Mitigation

4.20.4 Recommendations for Land Managers, Policymakers, and Other Stakeholders

4.20.5 Summary

Acknowledgments

References

4.21. Vulnerability of Coral Reefs

Glossary

4.21.1 Impacts of Climate Change on Coral Reefs

4.21.2 Coral Reefs and Cumulative Impacts

4.21.3 What Is Resilience?

4.21.4 The Conventional View of Coral Reef Resilience

4.21.5 An Alternative View of Resilience in a Disturbed World

4.21.6 Implications for Conservation and Management

Conclusions

References

4.22. Vulnerability of Estuaries to Climate Change

Glossary

4.22.1 Introduction

4.22.2 What Is an Estuary?

4.22.3 Long-Term Change

4.22.4 Modes of Estuarine Response

4.22.5 Implications for Ecosystem Functions and Services

References

4.23. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Canadian Arctic

4.23.1 Introduction

4.23.2 Climate Change Impacts in the Arctic

4.23.3 Vulnerability and Adaptation

4.23.4 The Canadian Arctic and Community Vulnerability Studies

4.23.5 Subsistence Hunting

4.23.6 Transportation

4.23.7 Infrastructure

4.23.8 Health and Well-Being

4.23.9 Culture and Learning

4.23.10 Business and Economy

4.23.11 Conclusions

References

4.24. Vulnerability of the Ski Industry

4.24.1 Introduction

4.24.2 The Winter Sports Tourism Industry

4.24.3 Evolution of Ski Industry Climate Sensitivity

4.24.4 Vulnerability to Climate

4.24.5 Conclusions and Policy Implications

References

Planning, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies

4.25. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies to Reduce Climate Vulnerabilities and Maintain Ecosystem Services

Glossary

4.25.1 Introduction

4.25.2 Mitigation

4.25.3 Adaptation

4.25.4 Social Considerations in Planning for Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change

Acknowledgments

References

Volume 5: Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate

Preface

General Overview of Water Cycle: Patterns, Utilization & Risk Projections

5.01. Emerging Approaches to Hydrological Risk Management in a Changing World

5.01.1 Unexpected Events and Risk Management

5.01.2 Elements of Integrated Hydrological Risk Management

5.01.3 Top-Down (Economic) Approach to Risk Assessment Based on Probabilities

5.01.4 Bottom-Up (Social) Approach to Risk Assessment Based on Possibilities

5.01.5 Accounting for Black Swan Events

5.01.6 Conclusions

Acknowledgments

References

5.02. State of the World’s Water Resources

5.02.1 Introduction

5.02.2 Water Availability

5.02.3 Water Use

5.02.4 Conclusions

References

5.03. Recent Trends in Regional and Global Intense Precipitation Patterns

5.03.1 Introduction

5.03.2 Observed Changes in Extreme Precipitation during the Past 50 Years over the Globe

5.03.3 Conclusions and Recommendations

References

5.04. Orographic Precipitation, Freshwater Resources, and Climate Vulnerabilities in Mountainous Regions

5.04.1 Introduction

5.04.2 Landform and Orographic Precipitation Regimes

5.04.3 Coupled Land–Atmosphere Interactions and Mountain Ecohydrosystems

5.04.4 Climate and Environmental Change Vulnerabilities of Mountainous Regions

5.04.5 Synthesis

Acknowledgments

References

5.05. Tropical Montane Cloud Forests

5.05.1 Tropical Montane Cloud Forests and Their Relationship to Water Input

5.05.2 Stability of Tropical Montane Cloud Forests

5.05.3 Bottom–Up Solutions

References

5.06. Climate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation of Urban Water Infrastructure Systems

5.06.1 Introduction

5.06.2 Conventional Urban Water Infrastructure Systems

5.06.3 Toward Sustainable Urban Water Systems

5.06.4 Conclusion

References

5.07. Impacts of Urbanization on Precipitation and Storms: Physical Insights and Vulnerabilities

5.07.1 Introduction

5.07.2 Vulnerabilities in the Coupled Human Natural System

5.07.3 Historical Evidence of the ‘URE’

5.07.4 Post-METROMEX Era Perspective

5.07.5 Beyond Spatiotemporal Rainfall Climatology: Urban Effects and Other Related Hazards

5.07.6 What Causes the URE?

5.07.7 Broader Context

References

5.08. Analysis of Paleoclimate Records for Understanding the Tropical Hydrologic Cycle in Abrupt Climate Change

5.08.1 Introduction

5.08.2 Modern Tropical Hydrological Cycle

5.08.3 Tropical Paleoclimate during the Last Glacial–Interglacial Cycle

5.08.4 Tropical Climate during the LGM

5.08.5 Holocene Climate

5.08.6 Past Civilizations and Tropical Hydrological Cycle

5.08.7 Concluding Remarks

References

5.09. The Potential of Precipitation Remote Sensing for Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment in Arid Southwestern United States

5.09.1 Introduction

5.09.2 Remote Sensing of Precipitation

5.09.3 Application to Water Resources Vulnerability Assessment

5.09.4 Summary and Concluding Remarks

References

5.10. Application of Satellite Gravimetry for Water Resource Vulnerability Assessment

5.10.1 Introduction

5.10.2 GRACE Data: Unique and Challenging

5.10.3 Groundwater Depletion Assessment

5.10.4 Lakes and Glaciers

5.10.5 GRACE Data Assimilation

5.10.6 Drought Monitoring

5.10.7 Future Prospects

References

Regional Vulnerability of Water Resources

5.11. Changing Discharge Patterns of High-Latitude Rivers

Glossary

5.11.1 Introduction

5.11.2 Current Status of Discharge Monitoring

5.11.3 River Streamflow

5.11.4 Discussion and Conclusions

References

5.12. The Sustainability of Pacific Northwest Hydropower Generation in the Context of Nonstationarity and Renewable Energy Growth

5.12.1 Introduction

5.12.2 Harnessing Hydropower: An Overview

5.12.3 Environmental and Social Consequences of Hydropower

5.12.4 The Regulatory Environment

5.12.5 Hydropower in the Context of Renewable Energy

5.12.6 Hydropower in the Face of Nonstationarity

5.12.7 The Sustainability of Hydropower in the Pacific Northwest

Acknowledgments

Disclaimer

References

5.13. Water Resources of Mainland China

5.13.1 Introduction

5.13.2 Water Resource Status in Seven River Basins

5.13.3 Some Key Water Resource Issues

5.13.4 Possible Influences of Climate on Water Resources

5.13.5 Tackling the Water Resource Problems

5.13.6 Concluding Remarks

Acknowledgments

References

Web References

5.14. Recent and Historic Andean Snowpack and Streamflow Variations and Vulnerability to Water Shortages in Central-Western Argentina

5.14.1 Introduction

5.14.2 Andean Snowpack Is a Crucial Water Resource in Vast Semiarid Areas of Southern South America

5.14.3 Andean Snowpack and Streamflow Records Share a Strong Regional Common Signal

5.14.4 Relationship of Local Hydroclimatic Variations with Large-Scale Atmospheric Features such as ENSO and PDO

5.14.5 Reconstructing Andean Snowpack Variations from Multiple Proxies

5.14.6 Climate and Hydrological Sciences Informing Vulnerability Reduction and Adaptation

Acknowledgments

References

5.15. Natural Hazards Assessment in Mountainous Terrains of Europe: Landslides and Flash Floods

5.15.1 Introduction

5.15.2 Landslide Hazard in Mountain Terrains of Europe

5.15.3 A Large-Scale Characterization of Flash Floods Hazard in Europe

5.15.4 Conclusions and Indication for Future Work

References

5.16. Flood Inundation Dynamics and Socioeconomic Vulnerability under Environmental Change

5.16.1 Environmental Change and Its Impact on Floods

5.16.2 Flood Inundation Dynamics and Impact Modeling

5.16.3 Changing Flood Risk and Vulnerability

5.16.4 Concluding Remarks

References

5.17. Vulnerability Assessments in the Netherlands Using Climate Scenarios

5.17.1 Introduction: Climate and Vulnerability in the Netherlands

5.17.2 Case Studies in the Context of Vulnerability Assessment

5.17.3 Protection against River Floods in the Rhine Basin

5.17.4 Coastal Defense: Storm Surges and Sea Level Rise

5.17.5 Extreme Precipitation in the Coastal Area

5.17.6 Climate Change Assessments in the Netherlands

5.17.7 Concluding Remarks

References

5.18. Epitomes of Bottom-Up Hydro-Geo-Climatological Analysis to Face Sea Level Rise in Complex Coastal Ecosystems

5.18.1 Coastal Ecosystems: Geomorphic Elements, Species, and Cities

5.18.2 Materials and Methods

5.18.3 Results and Discussion

5.18.4 Conclusions and Perspectives

Acknowledgments

References

Relevant Websites

5.19. West Africa – Water Resources Vulnerability Using a Multidimensional Approach: Case Study of Volta Basin

5.19.1 Introduction

5.19.2 The Volta River Basin: Physical Setting

5.19.3 Surface Water Sources and Quality in the Volta System

5.19.4 Groundwater Sources in the Volta Basin of Ghana

5.19.5 Agroecological Zones in the Volta Basin of Ghana

5.19.6 The History of Development of the Volta Basin

5.19.7 Social Issues in the Volta Basin

5.19.8 Major Farming Systems and Land Tenure in the Volta Basin

5.19.9 Health and Environmental Changes in the Volta Basin

5.19.10 Conclusion

References

5.20. Assessment of the Vulnerabilities of the Nubian Sandstone Fossil Aquifer, North Africa

Glossary

5.20.1 Introduction

5.20.2 Geologic and Hydrologic Setting of the Nubian Aquifer System

5.20.3 Origin and Evolution of the Nubian Aquifer System

5.20.4 Temporal and Spatial Mass Variations across the Nubian Aquifer Using GRACE Data

5.20.5 Connectivity of Subbasins

5.20.6 Patterns of Paleo-Recharge

5.20.7 Patterns of Modern Natural Recharge

5.20.8 Modern Recharge Due to Manmade Structures

5.20.9 Location and Magnitude of Modern Discharge

5.20.10 Scenarios for Recharging the Nubian Aquifer

5.20.11 Development of Realistic Groundwater Flow and Age-Mass Transport Models for the Nubian Aquifer

5.20.12 Findings

5.20.13 Implications for the Vulnerability of the Nubian Aquifer

Acknowledgments

References

5.21. Climate Vulnerability on the Water Resources Systems and Potential Adaptation Approaches in East Africa: The Case of Ethiopia

5.21.1 Introduction

5.21.2 Ethiopia in Eastern Africa: Climate and Water Resources

5.21.3 Historical and Observational Evidence of Climate Variability

5.21.4 The Contextual Vulnerability Factors

5.21.5 Bottom-Up Adaptation Approaches to Climate Vulnerability

5.21.6 Conclusion

References

5.22. Hydroclimatology and Large-Scale Population Vulnerability to Cholera Outbreaks in the Bengal Delta

5.22.1 Introduction

5.22.2 Key Hydroclimatic and Environmental Processes

5.22.3 Hydroclimatology and Associated Population Vulnerability

5.22.4 Conclusions

References

5.23. Flood Inundation and Crop Damage Mapping: A Method for Modeling the Impact on Rural Income and Migration in Humid Deltas

5.23.1 Introduction

5.23.2 Case Study Site: Bangladesh

5.23.3 Climate-Vulnerability Scenarios of Bangladesh by Bottom-Up Approach

5.23.4 Potential Methods for Remote-Sensing-Based Spatiotemporal Migration Study and Existing Knowledge Base

5.23.5 Discussion on Potential Scope of Future Research

References

5.24. Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Bangladesh from Risks of Climate

5.24.1 Introduction

5.24.2 Sensitivity of Water Resources to Environmental and Socioeconomic Variables

5.24.3 Critical Changes (Thresholds) in Variables Affecting Water Resources

5.24.4 Impacts of Critical Changes and Actions to Eliminate Negative Impacts

5.24.5 Specific Recommendations for Policymakers and Stakeholders

References

5.25. Water Resources Vulnerability in the Context of Rapid Urbanization of Dhaka City (a South Asian Megacity)

5.25.1 Introduction

5.25.2 Twenty-Year Analysis of Rainfall Patterns in Urban and Nonurban Regions of Bangladesh

5.25.3 Analysis of the 28 July 2009 Storm Event

5.25.4 Assessment of Urban Runoff Generation Potential

5.25.5 Discussion

5.25.6 Conclusion

Acknowledgments

References

Index