Serving as the foundation for a one-semester course in stochastic processes for students familiar with elementary probability theory and calculus, Introduction to Stochastic Modeling, Fourth Edition, bridges the gap between basic probability and an intermediate level course in stochastic processes. The objectives of the text are to introduce students to the standard concepts and methods of stochastic modeling, to illustrate the rich diversity of applications of stochastic processes in the applied sciences, and to provide exercises in the application of simple stochastic analysis to realistic problems. New to this edition: Realistic applications from a variety of disciplines integrated throughout the text, including more biological applications Plentiful, completely updated problems Completely updated and reorganized end-of-chapter exercise sets, 250 exercises with answers New chapters of stochastic differential equations and Brownian motion and related processes Additional sections on Martingale and Poisson process
This accessible reference includes selected contributions from Bayesian Thinking - Modeling and Computation, Volume 25 in the Handbook of Statistics Series, with a focus on key methodologies and applications for Bayesian models and computation. It describes parametric and nonparametric Bayesian methods for modeling, and how to use modern computational methods to summarize inferences using simulation. The book covers a wide range of topics including objective and subjective Bayesian inferences, with a variety of applications in modeling categorical, survival, spatial, spatiotemporal, Epidemiological, small area and micro array data.
Markov processes are used to model systems with limited memory. They are used in many areas including communications systems, transportation networks, image segmentation and analysis, biological systems and DNA sequence analysis, random atomic motion and diffusion in physics, social mobility, population studies, epidemiology, animal and insect migration, queueing systems, resource management, dams, financial engineering, actuarial science, and decision systems. This book, which is written for upper level undergraduate and graduate students, and researchers, presents a unified presentation of Markov processes. In addition to traditional topics such as Markovian queueing system, the book discusses such topics as continuous-time random walk,correlated random walk, Brownian motion, diffusion processes, hidden Markov models, Markov random fields, Markov point processes and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Continuous-time random walk is currently used in econophysics to model the financial market, which has traditionally been modelled as a Brownian motion. Correlated random walk is popularly used in ecological studies to model animal and insect movement. Hidden Markov models are used in speech analysis and DNA sequence analysis while Markov random fields and Markov point processes are used in image analysis. Thus, the book is designed to have a very broad appeal.
Introduction to Probability Models, Tenth Edition, provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes. There are two approaches to the study of probability theory. One is heuristic and nonrigorous, and attempts to develop in students an intuitive feel for the subject that enables him or her to think probabilistically. The other approach attempts a rigorous development of probability by using the tools of measure theory. The first approach is employed in this text. The book begins by introducing basic concepts of probability theory, such as the random variable, conditional probability, and conditional expectation. This is followed by discussions of stochastic processes, including Markov chains and Poison processes. The remaining chapters cover queuing, reliability theory, Brownian motion, and simulation. Many examples are worked out throughout the text, along with exercises to be solved by students. This book will be particularly useful to those interested in learning how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. Ideally, this text would be used in a one-year course in probability models, or a one-semester course in introductory probability theory or a course in elementary stochastic processes.
Roussas's Introduction to Probability features exceptionally clear explanations of the mathematics of probability theory and explores its diverse applications through numerous interesting and motivational examples. It provides a thorough introduction to the subject for professionals and advanced students taking their first course in probability. The content is based on the introductory chapters of Roussas's book, An Intoduction to Probability and Statistical Inference, with additional chapters and revisions.
Mixing up various disciplines frequently produces something that are profound and far-reaching. Cybernetics is such an often-quoted example. Mix of information theory, statistics and computing technology proves to be very useful, which leads to the recent development of information-theory based methods for estimating complicated probability distributions.Estimating probability distribution of a random variable is the fundamental task for quite some fields besides statistics, such as reliability, probabilistic risk analysis (PSA), machine learning, pattern recognization, image processing, neural networks and quality control. Simple distribution forms such as Gaussian, exponential or Weibull distributions are often employed to represent the distributions of the random variables under consideration, as we are taught in universities. In engineering, physical and social science applications, however, the distributions of many random variables or random vectors are so complicated that they do not fit the simple distribution forms at al.Exact estimation of the probability distribution of a random variable is very important. Take stock market prediction for example. Gaussian distribution is often used to model the fluctuations of stock prices. If such fluctuations are not normally distributed, and we use the normal distribution to represent them, how could we expect our prediction of stock market is correct? Another case well exemplifying the necessity of exact estimation of probability distributions is reliability engineering. Failure of exact estimation of the probability distributions under consideration may lead to disastrous designs.There have been constant efforts to find appropriate methods to determine complicated distributions based on random samples, but this topic has never been systematically discussed in detail in a book or monograph. The present book is intended to fill the gap and documents the latest research in this subject.Determining a complicated distribution is not simply a multiple of the workload we use to determine a simple distribution, but it turns out to be a much harder task. Two important mathematical tools, function approximation and information theory, that are beyond traditional mathematical statistics, are often used. Several methods constructed based on the two mathematical tools for distribution estimation are detailed in this book. These methods have been applied by the author for several years to many cases. They are superior in the following senses:(1) No prior information of the distribution form to be determined is necessary. It can be determined automatically from the sample;(2) The sample size may be large or small;(3) They are particularly suitable for computers. It is the rapid development of computing technology that makes it possible for fast estimation of complicated distributions. The methods provided herein well demonstrate the significant cross influences between information theory and statistics, and showcase the fallacies of traditional statistics that, however, can be overcome by information theory.Key Features:- Density functions automatically determined from samples- Free of assuming density forms- Computation-effective methods suitable for PC