Trade, Stability, Technology, and Equity in Latin America

List of Contributors

Preface

Introduction

Part I International Trade

Chapter 1 Exchange Rates and Terms of Trade in the Argentine Republic, 1913-1976

I. Real Exchange Rates Since 1913

II. Departures from PPP

III. The Law of One Price

References

Chapter 2 The Terms of Trade, Real Output, and the Balance of Payments in a Primary Exporting Country: A Model and Some Estimates for Guatemala

I. The Model

II. The Case of Guatemala: Some General Considerations

III. Empirical Results

References

Chapter 3 Dismantling Foreign Trade Restrictions: Some Evidence and Issues on the Argentine Case

I. Introduction

II. Nominal and Effective Protection

III. An Exercise in Tariff Dismantling

IV. On the Change in Relative Prices

V. Summary and Conclusions

References

Chapter 4 Manufactured Exports, Labor Productivity, and Employment in Latin America: A Hypothesis Based on the Clothing Industry in Colombia

I. Introduction

II. Protection, Exports, and Labor Productivity

III. Causes of the Rise and Fall of Colombia's Clothing Exports

IV. Generalizing to Other Industries and Other Latin American Countries

V. Conclusion

References

Part II External Instability

Chapter 5 Old and New Forms of External Instability in Latin America: Sources, Mechanisms of Transmission, and Policies

I. Introduction

II. Sources of External Instability

III. The Transmission of Instability

IV. Policies for Stability: Some Issues for Research

References

Chapter 6 The Vulnerability of Small Semi-Industrialized Economies to Export Shocks: A Simulation Analysis Based on Peruvian Data

I. The Small Semi-Industrialized Economy and Its Balance-of-Payments Adjustment Mechanism

II. Multisectoral Models of Adjustment to Export Shortfalls

III. Simulation Results for Peru

IV. Policy Conclusions

References

Chapter 7 Latin American External Debt: The Case of Uncertain Development

I. Introduction

II. The Composition and Magnitude of the Debt

III. The Rate of Return to External Borrowing

IV. Projections of Latin American Financing Needs

V. Conclusion

References

Part III Stabilization and Growth

Chapter 8 Macroeconomic Disequilibrium and Short-Run Economic Growth in Developing Countries

I. Introduction

II. Possible Macroeconomic Adjustment Mechanism: IS Equilibrium

III. Sample Estimates of the Saving and Investment Functions

IV. Destabilizing IS Adjustment

V. Closing the Model

VI. Supplementary Macroeconomic Adjustment Mechanisms

VII. Macroeconomic Adjustment and Short-Run Growth

VIII. Concluding Remarks

References

Chapter 9 Investment, Inflation, and Employment: A Macroeconomic Framework

I. Introduction

II. Income and Wealth Accounts

III. Equilibrium

IV. Comparative Statics

References

Chapter 10 Inflation and Growth: Lessons from the Argentine Experience

I. Introduction

II. The Costs of Inflation

III. Repressed Inflation

IV. Inflation and Growth

V. Free Inflation: The Road to Sustained Price Stability

VI. Conclusions

References

Chapter 11 Economic Stabilization and Structural Change: The Chilean Economy after 1973

I. Macroeconomic Results

II. The Stabilization Program and Its Phases

III. Structural Changes

IV. Conclusions

References

Part IV Technology

Chapter 12 Fostering Technological Mastery by Means of Selective Infant-Industry Protection

I. Introduction

II. The Nature of Infant-Industry Costs and Benefits

III. Conventional Prescriptions versus Actual Practice

IV. Reformulation of the Prescription for Infant Industries

V. The Evidence Reconsidered

VI. Export Performance

VII. Infant-Industry Exports

VIII. Conclusion: Implications for Industrial Strategy

IX. Postscript

References

Chapter 13 Technology and Economic Development: An Overview of Research Findings

I. Introduction

II. Firms, Technology, and Industrial Organization in DCs and LDCs

III. The Production Function for New Technical Knowledge

References

Chapter 14 The Engineering Sector in a Model of Economic Development

I. The Model

II. Nature and Implications of the Model

III. Final Remarks

References

Chapter 15 The Skills and Information Requirements of Industrial Technologies: On the Use of Engineers as a Proxy

I. Introduction

II. The Engineering Role

III. Characterization of the Industries by Engineering Skills

IV. Characterization of the Level of Technological Development by the Stock and Utilization of Engineering and Scientific Skills

References

Chapter 16 The Capital Goods Sector in LDCs: Economic and Technical Development

I. Introduction

II. Evidence of Cost Efficiency

III. Evidence of Design Adaptation to Domestic Factor Proportions

IV. Some Hypotheses about the Research Process

V. Requirements of Cost Efficiency and Design Innovation

VI. Implications for Policy

References

Part V Equity

Chapter 17 Basic Needs, Distribution, and Growth: The Beginnings of a Framework

I. Introduction

II. Basic Needs within a General Economic System

III. Incomes, Allotments, and Basic Needs

IV. Basic Needs Planning Policy and Organizational Choices

References

Chapter 18 Trying to Appraise a Decade of Development: Latin America in the Sixties

I. Introduction

II. The Search for a Development Indicator

III. Another Attempt at Quantifying Latin America's Development Between 1960 and 1970

Appendix

References

Chapter 19 Growth, Underemployment, and Income Distribution

I. Introduction

II. The Methodology

III. Informal Sector: Underemployment and Equity at Low Income Levels

IV. Intersectoral Income Differentials and Nondecreasing Gaps

V. Employment Pattern and Income Inequality

VI. Growth, Labor Market, and Inequality

VII. Conclusions

References

Chapter 20 Labor, Education, and Development: Whither Latin America?

I. Sectoral Employment

II. Occupational Distribution of the Labor Force

III. Educational Requirements of Occupations

IV. Whither Latin America?

References

Chapter 21 Economic Growth, Rural and Urban Wages: The Case of Brazil

I. Introduction

II. Rural Wages

III. Urban Wages

IV. Urban-Rural Wage Ratio

V. Conclusions

Appendix

References

Index