Risk Assessment and Management for Ships and Offshore Structures

The volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) nature of environmental and operational conditions is still the major cause of marine accidents, with knock-on effects in terms of casualties, property damage, and marine pollution. Recognized as the most effective approach to navigate VUCA environments, risk-based assessment methods provide a solution to address challenges associated with health, safety, and environmental protection in extreme conditions and when accidents involving engineering structures and infrastructure occur. This book serves as a comprehensive guide to the foundational principles, current practices, and cuttingedge trends in quantitative risk assessment and management for ships and offshore structures. With six parts
encompassing a total of 35 chapters, it covers risk assessment and management for offshore installations, oil and gas leaks, collisions and grounding, and fires and explosions. Tailored for ship and offshore structural engineers, naval architects, as well as mechanical and civil engineers involved in advanced safety studies, this book is an invaluable resource for both practicing engineers and researchers in this field.

Cover image
Title page
Table of Contents
Copyright
About the authors
Preface
Part I: Principles of risk assessment and management
1. Introduction to risk assessment and management
Abstract
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Risk calculation
1.3 Risk acceptance criteria
1.4 Risk assessment to determine performance standards
References
2. Human reliability assessment
Abstract
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Human error identification
2.3 Human error analyses
2.4 Human error reduction
2.5 Application of ergonomics to the design of marine systems
2.6 Quality assurance and quality control
2.7 Human and organizational factors in offshore structures
References
Further reading
3. Risk-based inspection for subsea pipelines
Abstract
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Risk-based inspection procedure
3.3 Case study 1
3.4 Case study 2
3.5 Engineering considerations
References
Further reading
Part II: Risk assessment and management for offshore installations
4. Risk-based decision-making
Abstract
4.1 Introduction
4.2 Basic concepts of probability
4.3 Risk-based decision-making process
4.4 Risk assessment
4.5 Risk management
4.6 Impact assessment
4.7 Risk communication
4.8 Step-by-step example of risk-based decision-making for marine applications
References
Further reading
5. Risk assessment of offshore structures
Abstract
5.1 Introduction
5.2 Collision risk
5.3 Explosion risk
5.4 Fire risk
5.5 Dropped objects
5.6 Case study: risk assessment of a floating production system
5.7 Environmental impact assessment
References
Further reading
6. Formal safety assessment in the shipping industry
Abstract
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Overview of formal safety assessment
6.3 Functional components of formal safety assessment
6.4 Human and organizational factors in formal safety assessment
6.5 Example of application to ship fuel systems
6.6 Concerns regarding the use of formal safety assessment in shipping
References
Further reading
7. Economic risk assessment for field development
Abstract
7.1 Introduction
7.2 Decision criteria and limit state functions
7.3 Economic risk modeling
7.4 Evaluation of the results
7.5 Net present value and internal rate of return
References
Further reading
8. Risk and reliability analyses of floating, production, storage, and offloading units
Abstract
8.1 Introduction
8.2 Risk-based classification
8.3 Risk-based inspection
8.4 Risk-based survey
Further reading
9. Systematic review of floating production systems
Abstract
9.1 Introduction
9.2 Methodology
9.3 Systematic review
9.4 Review of findings
9.5 Discussion
9.6 Engineering considerations
References
Further reading
10. Risk assessment of subsea production systems
Abstract
10.1 Introduction
10.2 Hazard identification procedure
10.3 Risk assessment of subsea production systems
10.4 Challenges to the reliability of subsea Xmas tree systems
10.5 Recommendations for maintenance and monitoring
10.6 Engineering considerations
References
Further reading
11. Systematic measures to address offshore drilling hazards
Abstract
11.1 Introduction
11.2 Hazards related to offshore drilling
11.3 Measures to prevent hazards in offshore drilling
11.4 Engineering considerations
11.5 Measures for hazard prevention
References
Further reading
12. Deepwater drilling: problems and solutions
Abstract
12.1 Introduction
12.2 Riserless drilling
12.3 Problems associated with offshore drilling operations and their solutions
12.4 Engineering considerations
References
Further reading
13. Metocean criteria for internal waves to design submarine structures
Abstract
13.1 Introduction
13.2 References data and method
13.3 Generation locations
13.4 Numerical modeling
13.5 Engineering considerations
References
Further reading
14. Systems numerical modeling to establish metocean criteria for internal solitary waves
Abstract
14.1 Introduction
14.2 Computational modeling
14.3 Computational results
14.4 Lessons learned from the case study
14.5 Engineering considerations
References
Further reading
Part III: Risk assessment and management for oil and gas leaks from manifolds
15. Fault tree analysis
Abstract
15.1 Configuration of manifolds
15.2 Fault tree analysis process
15.3 Overview of subsea production system manifolds
15.4 Fault tree analysis of subsea manifold system
15.5 Solution of the minimum cut set
15.6 Qualitative fault tree analysis
15.7 Quantitative fault tree analysis
References
Further reading
16. Analysis of the principles of valve cavitation
Abstract
Nomenclature
16.1 Introduction
16.2 Reliability of valves of subsea manifold systems
16.3 Numerical simulations based on computational fluid dynamics
16.4 Analysis of the internal flow field of the valve
16.5 Analysis of flow characteristics
16.6 Engineering considerations
References
Further reading
17. Risk assessment and simulation of oil and gas leakage
Abstract
17.1 Introduction
17.2 Gas leak and dispersion mechanism
17.3 Risk assessment methods for oil and gas leakage and diffusion
17.4 PHAST-based numerical simulation of oil and gas leakage and diffusion
17.5 Simulation of gas leakage and diffusion
17.6 Engineering considerations
References
Further reading
Part IV: Risk assessment and management for collisions and grounding
18. Determination of collision loads
Abstract
18.1 Introduction
18.2 Framework of the proposed procedure
18.3 Example
18.4 Engineering considerations
References
Further reading
19. Analysis of structural crashworthiness in supply vessel collisions
Abstract
19.1 Introduction
19.2 Structural crashworthiness analysis
19.3 Computational models
19.4 Validation of analytical models for collision load analysis
19.5 Engineering considerations
References
Further reading
20. Structural crashworthiness analysis in collisions and grounding
Abstract
20.1 Introduction
20.2 Mechanics of ship collision and grounding
20.3 Factors affecting ship collisions
20.4 Factors affecting ship grounding
References
21. Collision risk assessment and management
Abstract
21.1 Introduction
21.2 Procedure for assessing collision risks
21.3 Analysis of collision consequences
21.4 Calculation of collision risks
21.5 Collision risk exceedance diagrams
21.6 Collision risk management
References
22. Grounding risk assessment and management
Abstract
22.1 Introduction
22.2 Procedure for grounding risk assessment
22.3 Ship grounding risk assessment
22.4 Analysis of grounding frequency
22.5 Analysis of grounding consequences
22.6 Calculation of the grounding risk
22.7 Grounding risk exceedance diagrams
22.8 Grounding risk management
References
23. Practical finite element method to simulate structural crashworthiness in ship collisions and grounding
Abstract
23.1 Introduction
23.2 Practical techniques for nonlinear finite element modeling of structural crashworthiness
23.3 Tensile coupon test of structural steel
23.4 Axial tensile test of a plate with opening
23.5 Engineering considerations
References
Further reading
Part V: Risk assessment and management of fires and explosions
24. Leakage and deflagration
Abstract
24.1 Introduction
24.2 Theoretical model of gas leaks and explosions
24.3 Safety analysis for leakage and deflagration
24.4 Consequence assessment of indirect explosions
24.5 Sensitivity of critical parameters
24.6 Engineering considerations
References
Further reading
25. Management of risks associated with explosion loads
Abstract
25.1 Introduction
25.2 General procedure for the QRA of flammable gas explosions
25.3 Target structure
25.4 Scenario selection
25.5 Quantitative risk analysis
25.6 Risk analysis
25.7 Engineering considerations
References
Further reading
26. Risk management for structural failure due to explosions
Abstract
26.1 Introduction
26.2 Use of finite element methods
26.3 Example of explosion response of floating, production, storage, and offloading units
References
27. Risk management for structural failures due to fires
Abstract
27.1 Introduction
27.2 Basic theoretical model for the fire dynamics simulator code
27.3 Fire dynamics simulator scenario modeling for process modules subjected to jet fires
27.4 Examples of fire responses of floating, production, storage, and offloading units
References
28. Finite element model–based analysis of the progressive collapse of steel-stiffened plate structures in fires
Abstract
28.1 Introduction
28.2 Computational models
28.3 Application of the computational models in structural testing
28.4 Computational results and discussion
28.5 Engineering considerations
References
29. Heat radiation from jet fires
Abstract
29.1 Introduction
29.2 Facility description
29.3 Mesh analysis
29.4 Heat radiation analysis
References
Further reading
30. Risk management for fires
Abstract
30.1 Introduction
30.2 Fire risk management of floating, production, storage, and offloading unit topside structures
30.3 Risk assessment of fire accidents on floating, production, storage, and offloading unit topside structures
30.4 Comparison between the bowtie method and hazard and operability study
30.5 Engineering considerations
References
Further reading
31. Risk assessment and management for explosions
Abstract
31.1 Introduction
31.2 Procedure for assessing explosion risk
31.3 Procedure for quantitatively analyzing gas explosion loads in offshore platforms
31.4 Leak scenario selection
31.5 Latin hypercube sampling
31.6 Explosion scenario selection
31.7 Design explosion loads
31.8 Engineering considerations
References
Further reading
Part VI: Risk assessment and asset integrity management
32. Asset integrity management for offshore installations
Abstract
32.1 Introduction
32.2 Basic theory for risk-based management
32.3 Risk-based inspection
32.4 Risk-based inspection process
32.5 Safety integrity level assessment
32.6 Engineering projects
Further reading
33. Probability and risk-based inspection planning
Abstract
33.1 Introduction
33.2 Concepts of risk-based inspection planning
33.3 Reliability updating theory for probability-based inspection planning
33.4 Examples of risk-based inspection
33.5 Risk-based optimal inspection
References
Further reading
34. Risk and system integrity level assessment for offshore facilities
Abstract
34.1 Introduction
34.2 Risk-based safety evaluation and planning of preventive steps
34.3 Forecasting accident situations
34.4 Hazard identification and planning of safety steps
34.5 Hazard determination
34.6 Quantitative hazard assessment
34.7 Capability loss assessment
34.8 Probabilistic hazard assessment
34.9 Hazard evaluation
34.10 Engineering considerations
References
35. Reliability-centered maintenance for offshore installations
Abstract
35.1 Introduction
35.2 Reliability-centered maintenance history
35.3 Preliminary risk analysis
35.4 Reliability-centered maintenance
35.5 Risk-centered maintenance
35.6 Reliability-centered maintenance-based continuous improvement of maintenance strategies
References
Index

Life Sciences

Physical Sciences & Engineering

Social Sciences & Humanities

Health

Risk Assessment and Management for Ships and Offshore Structures

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Yong Bai

Jeom Kee Paik