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Resources Society and the Future

A Report Prepared for the Swedish Secretariat for Futures Studies By

1st Edition - January 1, 1980

Authors: Tomas Bertelman, Ernst Hollander, Carl-Axel Olsson

eBook ISBN:

9 7 8 - 1 - 4 8 3 1 - 5 8 5 5 - 6

Resources, Society and the Future is a report on resources and raw materials and their implications for the future of the Swedish society. This report aims to create a framework… Read more

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Resources, Society and the Future is a report on resources and raw materials and their implications for the future of the Swedish society. This report aims to create a framework for a continuous dialogue in Sweden between the general public and their political representatives, the scientific world and interest groups of all kinds. Two debates in Sweden are considered, one of them centering on national interests, that is, Sweden's needs for industrial production and exports, and the other concerning long-term questions of human survival (environment, resource base, and questions of equity between industrialized and developing countries). This book is comprised of seven chapters and begins by outlining the motives for a futures study of resources and raw materials, followed by an explanation of what resources and raw materials mean, along with a general description of the volume of raw materials produced and consumed worldwide. Subsequent chapters focus on the global demand and supply of resources; energy and raw materials in Sweden; and aims and means of a raw materials policy. Instruments of a raw materials policy and measures to reduce the use of scarce raw materials and to increase the supply of raw materials are discussed, along with the relationship between the environment and the supply of raw materials. This monograph will be a valuable resource for policymakers concerned with energy and natural resources and their impact on society.

Foreword

Preface

1 Motives for a Futures Study of Resources and Raw Materials

Introduction

Background to the Study of Resources and Raw Materials

History of a Debate

2 Resources and Raw Materials Defined

Introduction

The Physical Foundations of the Resource Concept

The Classification of Natural Resources

Cognitive Foundations of the Resource Concept

Resources and Mineral Reserves

Raw Materials

The Declining Share of the Primary Sectors of the Economy in Employment and Production

Measuring the Importance of Raw Materials

Raw Materials - Value

Classification by Needs

Distribution - An Important Basis of Assessment

International Dependence

Qualitative Aspects and the Importance of Raw Materials

3 Global Demand

Introduction

Forecasting Demand for Raw Materials

Population Development

GNP Growth

Demand for Raw Materials

Summary

4 Global Supply

Agriculture

Forestry

Fisheries

Minerals

Growing Energy and Pollution Problems

Increasing Difficulties in Mobilizing Reserves

Interstate Cartels

Political Events

Summary

5 Resources in a Long-Term Perspective

Introduction

The Time Perspectives

Foodstuffs per Capita

Natural Resources

Pollution

Will Technical Solutions Be Found?

What Sort of Technology?

Costs

Risks as an Element of Cost

System Sensitivity as a Cost

Costs in the Form of the Conceivable Impact of Technology on Social and Economic Structure

Costs in the Form of Reduced Quality of Life

6 Sweden and Raw Materials

Sweden's Raw Materials Profile

Two Perspectives on Sweden in about 1990

Alternative World Environments

Some Long-Term Factors with a Bearing in Demand for Raw Materials

Environmental Consideration

Will Sweden's Raw Materials Supplies Be Adequate?

Energy and Raw Materials

The Environment and the Supply of Raw Materials

Imports of Raw Materials

7 Aims and Means of a Raw Materials Policy

Introduction

Raw Materials Policy and Priorities

Resource Restrictions

The Dominant Economic Goals and Raw Materials Policy

Raw Materials Policy and Goals Differing from Those Traditionally Dominant

Instruments of a Raw Materials Policy

Measures to Reduce the Use of Scarce Raw Materials

Measures to Increase the Supply of Raw Materials

Measures to Secure Supplies

Long-Range Planning Perspectives

Summary

Appendices

1. the Secretariat for Futures Studies - Organization

2. Interim Reports and Other Background Material Compiled in the Course of the ROR Study

3a. Politics and Raw Materials in an International Perspective - Summary of a Study by Tomas Bertelman

3b. Non-Renewable Raw Materials

3c. The Substitution of Resources

4. Statistics

5. List of Figures and Tables

Subject Index