Practical Tourism Forecasting
- 1st Edition - November 21, 1996
- Imprint: Butterworth-Heinemann
- Author: Douglas Frechtling
- Language: English
- eBook ISBN:9 7 8 - 0 - 0 8 - 0 5 1 4 5 5 - 0
Practical Tourism Forecasting is the first step-by-step guide to forecasting tourism demand. It emphasizes how alternative forecasting methods organize information about the past… Read more
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Request a sales quotePractical Tourism Forecasting is the first step-by-step guide to forecasting tourism demand. It emphasizes how alternative forecasting methods organize information about the past to shed light on the future. It highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each of 13 different forecasting techniques and presents rules for determining the optimum model for a given tourism forecasting project.
Using examples from the lodging, destination, airline and international tourism sectors, this book employs charts and tables to explain how to
*plan a forecasting project
*analyze time series and other information
*select the appropriate forecasting model
* use the model for forecasting and evaluate its results.
'Practical Tourism Forecasting' is ideal for postgraduate students in tourism and hospitality degree programs specializing in marketing, finance and operations. It is also well-suited to managers and administrators who must project demand for their products among tourists. Executives who rely on forecasts prepared by others will find it will assist them in evaluating the validity and reliability of these predictions. Those engaged in analyzing business trends broadly will find it helpful in surveying the future of what has been called the largest industry in the world.
Using examples from the lodging, destination, airline and international tourism sectors, this book employs charts and tables to explain how to
*plan a forecasting project
*analyze time series and other information
*select the appropriate forecasting model
* use the model for forecasting and evaluate its results.
'Practical Tourism Forecasting' is ideal for postgraduate students in tourism and hospitality degree programs specializing in marketing, finance and operations. It is also well-suited to managers and administrators who must project demand for their products among tourists. Executives who rely on forecasts prepared by others will find it will assist them in evaluating the validity and reliability of these predictions. Those engaged in analyzing business trends broadly will find it helpful in surveying the future of what has been called the largest industry in the world.
Foreword written by J.Willard Marriott, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Marriott International, Washington DC.
Step-by-step guide to forecasting tourism demand
Extensive use of practical examples
'The principles can certainly be applied to other industries, so anyone looking for an exemplary textbook on forecasting can benefit from this book.' The Futurist,1997
Step-by-step guide to forecasting tourism demand
Extensive use of practical examples
'The principles can certainly be applied to other industries, so anyone looking for an exemplary textbook on forecasting can benefit from this book.' The Futurist,1997
Postgraduate students of tourism and hospitality, managers and administrators, executives and those engaged in evaluating forecasts.
Foreword; Preface; Acknowledgements; Introduction - What this book is about; The scope of tourism; The importance of tourism demand forecasting; Alternative views of the future; Forecasting definitions; Other definitions; Uses of tourism demand forecasts; Consequences of poor forecasting; Special difficulties in tourism demand forecasting; Organization of this book; For further information; World Tourism Organization publications; Notes; Alternative forecasting methods and evaluation - Types of forecasting methods; Forecasting methods and models; Forecasting model evaluation criteria; Forecast measures of accuracy; Error magnitude accuracy; Mean absolute percentage error; Root mean square percentage error; Directional change accuracy; Trend change accuracy; Value of graphical data displays; Computer software; Assessing data quality; Missing data; Discontinuous series; Data anomalies; Number of data points; Data precision; Reasonable data; Sound data collection; Summary; For further information; The tourism forecasting process - The forecasting process; The design phase; The specification phase; The implementation phase; The evaluation phase; Summary; For further information; Basic extrapolative models and decomposition - Patterns in time series; Seasonal patterns; Other data patterns; Time series forecasting methods; The naive forecasting method; Single moving average; Decomposition; Applications; Conclusion; For further information; Note; Intermediate extrapolative methods - Single exponential smoothing; Double exponential smoothing; Applications of DES; The autoregressive method; Comparing alternative time series models; Choosing a time series method; Summary; For further information; An advanced extrapolative method - The Box-Jenkins approach; Preparation phase; Identification phase; Estimation phase; Diagnostic checking phase; Forecasting phase; Applications; Conclusion; For further information; Notes; Causal methods, regression analysis - Linear regression analysis; Advantages of regression analysis; Limitations of regression analysis; The logic of regression analysis; Simple regression: linear time trend; Non-linear time trends; Multiple linear regression; Applications; Conclusion; For further information; Notes; Causal methods - structural models - A tourism demand structural model; Advantages and disadvantages; The estimation process; Applications; Conclusion; For further information; Qualitative forecasting methods - Occasions for qualitative methods; Advantages and disadvantages; Jury of executive opinion; Subjective probability assessment; Delphi method; Delphi advantages and disadvantages; Applications of the Delphi method; The consumer intentions survey; Conclusion - For further information; Conclusion; Monitoring your forecasts; What we have learned about tourism demand forecasting; Doing sound forecasting; Using forecasts wisely; A final word; For further information; Appendix 1 - Hotel/motel room demand in the Washington, D.C., metropolitan area, 1987-94; Appendix 2 - Dealing with super-annual events; Splicing a forecast to a time series; Glossary; Bibliography; Index.
- Edition: 1
- Published: November 21, 1996
- Imprint: Butterworth-Heinemann
- Language: English
- eBook ISBN: 9780080514550
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Douglas Frechtling
Affiliations and expertise
Chair of the Department of Tourism and Hospitality Management, The George Washington University,USA