Escaping from Bad Decisions
A Behavioral Decision-Theoretic Perspective
- 1st Edition - July 27, 2021
- Imprint: Academic Press
- Author: Kazuhisa Takemura
- Language: English
- Paperback ISBN:9 7 8 - 0 - 1 2 - 8 1 6 0 3 2 - 9
- eBook ISBN:9 7 8 - 0 - 1 2 - 8 1 6 0 3 3 - 6
Escaping from Bad Decisions presents a modern conceptual and mathematical framework of the decision-making process. By interpreting ordinal utility theory as normative analysis… Read more
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Request a sales quoteEscaping from Bad Decisions presents a modern conceptual and mathematical framework of the decision-making process. By interpreting ordinal utility theory as normative analysis examined in view of rationality, it shows how decision-making under certainty, risk, and uncertainty can be better understood. It provides a critical examination of psychological models in multi-attribute decision-making, and evaluates the constitutive elements of "good" and "bad" decisions. Multi-attribute decision-making is analysed descriptively, based on the psychological model of decision-making and computer simulations of decision strategies. Finally, prescriptive examinations of multi-attribute decision-making are performed, supporting the argument that decision-making from a pluralistic perspective creates results that can help "escape" from bad decisions.
This book will be of particular interest to graduate students and early career researchers in economics, decision-theory, behavioral economics, experimental economics, psychology, cognitive sciences, and decision neurosciences.
- Provides a comprehensive background to the phenomena of bad decisions, considered in their economic, psychological and cognitive aspects
- Reinterprets existing theories and phenomena and proposes a new overview of decision behaviors by integrating mathematical and psychological perspectives
- Adapts model-based techniques, such as mathematical model based functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) using mathematical models of the decision process
Graduate students and early career researchers in economics, decision theory, behavioral economics, experimental economics, psychology, cognitive sciences, and decision neurosciences
- Cover image
- Title page
- Table of Contents
- Copyright
- About the author
- Preface
- 1. Introduction: Escaping from bad decisions
- Abstract
- 1.1 The classical problem of bad decision-making and akrasia
- 1.2 Second-order desires and bad decisions
- 1.3 The perspective proposed in this book: avoiding bad decision-making through prescriptive heuristics based on scientific findings
- 1.4 An overview of the contents of this book and suggestion to avoid bad decisions
- 1.5 Conclusion and future perspectives
- References
- 2. Formal definitions of the worst decisions, best decisions, and bad decisions
- Abstract
- 2.1 Framework to describe decision-making
- 2.2 Worst option, best option, and bad decision
- 2.3 Conditions for guaranteeing preference relations of the worst and best options
- 2.4 Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of worst and best options
- 2.5 Conclusion
- References
- 3. Rational choice, irrational choice, and bad decisions
- Abstract
- 3.1 Economic man and rational decision-making
- 3.2 Greatest element rationalizability
- 3.3 Maximal-element rationalizability
- 3.4 Conclusion
- References
- 4. Preference ordering and measurement
- Abstract
- 4.1 Understanding preference relationships through ordering decisions and behavioral observations
- 4.2 Aspects of ordering decisions
- 4.3 What is the measurement of preference relations?
- 4.4 Quantitative representation of possible psychophysical laws and preference relations in terms of scale levels
- 4.5 Conclusion
- References
- 5. Rational preference, irrational preference, and revealed preference
- Abstract
- 5.1 Rationality criteria and revealed preference
- 5.2 The concept of revealed preference
- 5.3 Utility functions and indifference curves
- 5.4 Revealed preference
- 5.5 Irrational choice and revealed preference
- 5.6 Revealed attention
- 5.7 Empirical testing of acyclic preference relations
- 5.8 Conclusion
- References
- 6. Multiattribute decision-making, multiobjective optimization, and the additive conjoint system
- Abstract
- 6.1 Plurality of values and multiattribute decision-making
- 6.2 Difficulties of multiattribute decision-making
- 6.3 Theoretical examination when multiattribute decision-making does not satisfy weak order property of preference
- 6.4 Multiattribute decision-making and multioptimization
- 6.5 Additive conjoint structure and quasi best decision
- 6.6 Conclusion
- References
- 7. A computer simulation of cognitive effort and the accuracy of two-stage decision strategies in a multiattribute decision-making process
- Abstract
- 7.1 Introduction
- 7.2 Findings and problems of previous research on decision strategies
- 7.3 Purpose and methods of computer simulation 1
- 7.4 Results and discussion of computer simulation 1
- 7.5 Purpose and method of computer simulation 2
- 7.6 Results and discussion of computer simulation 2
- 7.7 General discussion
- 7.8 Conclusions and problems of this study
- References
- 8. A computer simulation of bad decisions and good decisions: an extended analysis of two-stage decision strategies
- Abstract
- 8.1 A comparison between additive strategy (WAD) and lexicographic strategy (LEX) in multiattribute decision-making
- 8.2 Methodology of this study
- 8.3 Results and discussion of computer simulation
- 8.4 General discussions
- 8.5 Conclusion
- References
- 9. A process tracing study of decision strategies and bad decisions
- Abstract
- 9.1 Implementation of the additive decision strategy and bad decision: a pilot study
- 9.2 How to examine the effect of a second-stage decision-making strategy using process tracking on the bad decisions
- 9.3 Results and discussion of the experiment
- 9.4 Conclusion
- References
- 10. A process tracing study of bad decisions: using eye tracking in food decision-making
- Abstract
- 10.1 The problem of risky food decision-making and the assumptions of this study
- 10.2 Method of the eye-tracking experiment
- 10.3 Results and discussion
- 10.4 Questionnaire survey
- 10.5 Conclusion
- References
- 11. Decision strategies and bad group decision-making: a group meeting experiment
- Abstract
- 11.1 Group decision and groupthink
- 11.2 Method of the experiment
- 11.3 Results and discussion
- 11.4 Conclusion
- References
- 12. An observational experiment in group decision-making: Can people detect bad group decisions?
- Abstract
- 12.1 Cognitive processes and groupthink in group decision-making
- 12.2 Pilot Study 1
- 12.3 Pilot Study 2
- 12.4 Method of the experiment
- 12.5 Result of experiment
- 12.6 Discussion
- 12.7 Conclusion
- References
- 13. Revisiting the group decision-making experiment
- Abstract
- 13.1 Irrationality and bad decision-making in group decision-making
- 13.2 Preliminary survey
- 13.3 Method for group decision-making experiment
- 13.4 Results
- 13.5 Discussion
- 13.6 Conclusion and future prospects
- References
- 14. The detection of bad decisions and a voting experiment
- Abstract
- 14.1 Detection of bad group decision-making and groupthink
- 14.2 Method of Experiment 1
- 14.3 Results and discussion of Experiment 1
- 14.4 Method of Experiment 2
- 14.5 Results and discussion of Experiment 2
- 14.6 Conclusion and future prospects
- References
- 15. Situation dependence of group and individual decision making and bad decisions
- Abstract
- 15.1 Decision-making strategies for individual decision-making and group decision-making by majority rule
- 15.2 Consequences from Condorcet’s Jury Theorem
- 15.3 Group decision-making in the situations where independence among group members is not ensured
- 15.4 Experimenton situation dependence of decision-making and bad decisions
- 15.5 Conclusion
- References
- 16. The contingent focus model and bad decisions
- Abstract
- 16.1 Situation dependence of decision-making and bad decisions
- 16.2 Framing effect as situation-dependent preference reversal
- 16.3 Inadequacy of utility theory for explaining the framing effect
- 16.4 Prospect theory explains the framing effect and its problem
- 16.5 Concept of the contingent focus model
- 16.6 Formulation of contingent focus model
- 16.7 Representation theorem of contingent focus model
- 16.8 Conclusion and future perspective
- References
- 17. An experiment on, and psyschometric analysis of, the contingent focus model
- Abstract
- 17.1 Risk attitudes and the contingent focus model
- 17.2 Experiment of contingent focus model and measurement
- 17.3 Experiment of contingent focus model
- 17.4 Conclusion and future perspectives
- References
- 18. The contingent focus model and its relation to other theories
- Abstract
- 18.1 Expected utility theory
- 18.2 A counterexample to expected utility theory: Allais paradox
- 18.3 Nonadditive probability and nonlinear utility theory
- 18.4 Why nonlinear utility theory cannot explain the framing effect
- 18.5 Framing effects and prospect theory
- 18.6 Relationship between the contingent focus model and nonlinear expected utility theory and prospect theory
- 18.7 Conclusion and future perspectives
- References
- 19. The mental ruler model: Qualitative and mathematical representations of contingent judgment
- Abstract
- 19.1 Contingent judgment
- 19.2 Contingent judgment and the problems in its modeling
- 19.3 Qualitative description of “mental ruler”
- 19.4 Mental ruler explanation using set theory and its mathematical description
- 19.5 Explanation of experimental findings
- 19.6 Conclusion and future perspectives
- References
- 20. How attention arises in and influences decision-making
- Abstract
- 20.1 Function of attention
- 20.2 Psychological model of attention
- 20.3 Mathematical model of attention rate to social events
- 20.4 Propositions and considerations derived from the model
- 20.5 Application to the psychometric model for attention rate to Covid-19 problem
- 20.6 Control of attention by psychological experiment
- 20.7 Model of category focusing and construction of mental ruler
- 20.8 Conclusion and future perspective
- References
- 21. Escaping from bad decisions and future perspective
- Abstract
- 21.1 Epistemology of bad decision
- 21.2 Individual decision and group decision strategies
- 21.3 Situational dependence of individual decision-making and its psychological laws
- 21.4 Nudges, boosts, and metacognition
- 21.5 Metacognitive model of decision-making process
- 21.6 Conclusion
- References
- Author Index
- Subject Index
- Edition: 1
- Published: July 27, 2021
- Imprint: Academic Press
- No. of pages: 542
- Language: English
- Paperback ISBN: 9780128160329
- eBook ISBN: 9780128160336
KT
Kazuhisa Takemura
Kazuhisa Takemura is a Professor of Psychology and Economics, and the Director of the Center for Decision Research at Waseda University in Japan. His research focuses on human judgment and decision making, especially modeling of preferential judgment and choice. He received the Hayashi Award (Distinguished Scholar) from The Behaviormetric Society in 2002, the Excellent Paper Award from the Japan Society of Kansei Engineering in 2003, the Book Award from Japanese Society of Social Psychology in 2010, the Book Award from Behaviormetric Society in 2016, and the Fellow Award from International Association of Applied Psychology in 2018.
Affiliations and expertise
Professor of Psychology and Economics, and Director, Center for Decision Research, Waseda University, JapanRead Escaping from Bad Decisions on ScienceDirect