Chapter 1. Probable Evolution of World Consumption of Energy
§ a. Background
§ b. Some Essential Data
§ c. Stabilization of Growth
§ d. Current Consumption of Primary Energy
§ e. Probable Increase in Population
§ f. Stabilization of the Consumption of Energy
§ g. Energy Consumption following Its Current Trend
§ h. Scenarios for the Possible Evolution of Energy Consumption
h1. General Framework
h2. Financial and Human Aspects
h3. Fundamental Relationship and Alternative of Choice
h4. Scenario 3a
h5. Scenario 3b
h6. Scenario 3c
§ i. Comparison of the Various Forecasts
§ j. Relationship "Standard of Living — Consumption of Energy"
j1. Quality of the Correlation
j2. Form of the R(H) Law
j3. Evolution in Time
§ k. Investments Necessary
k1. Specific Investments
k2. Renewal and New Installations
k3. Comparison with Gross Incomes
k4. Final Remarks
§ l. Cyclic Evolution of the Economic Situation
§ m. Causes of Distortion of the Forecasts
m1. Effect of Climatic Conditions on the Forecast
m2. Effect of Technological Changes
§ n. Conclusions
Annex 1A Relationships Linking the Numbers of the Populations, the Consumption of Energy per Inhabitant, the Total Consumption of Energy, and the Annual Growth Rates of These Different Quantities
Annex 1B Population, Income and Energy Consumed of the Countries Used as Basis for the Correlation "Income—Energy" and the Formation of Groups A, B and C 58
Chapter 2. Definitions and Sources of Energy
Part 1. Definitions
§ a. Units
§ b. Types of Energy
§ c. Relative Roles of Different Energies
§ d. Concept of Primary Energy
§ e. The Idea of Useful Energy
§ f. The Idea of Intermediate Energy
§ g. Losses
Part 2. Sources
§ h. Enumeration
§ i. Energy Values of Primary Energies
§ j . Generalities on the Reserves
§ k. Nonrenewable Reserves and Resources
§ l. Renewable Resources
§ m. General Recapitulation of Reserves and Resources
Annex 2A The "System International" of Units (SI)
Annex 2B Metric Systems
Annex 2C Anglo-Saxon Units
Annex 2D Example of the Determination of the Primary Hydraulic Energy: The Case of the Val D'Anniviers in Switzerland
Annex 2E Thermal Energy and the Energy Utility Factor
Chapter 3. Distribution of the Consumption of Energy
§ a. Introduction
§ b. Distribution of the World Consumption of Primary Energy
b1. Consumption of the Different Primary Energies
b2. Relative Roles of the Various Primary Energies
b3. Consumption per Inhabitant
§ c. Primary Energy Consumption of Three Large Societies
c1. Evolution of the Total Consumption
c2. Shares of Different Primary Energies
c3. Case of Western Europe
c4. Consumption per Inhabitant
§ d. Primary Energy Consumption of Three Industrialized Countries
d1. Total Consumption
d2. The Shares of the Different Primary Energies
d3. Consumption per Inhabitant
§ e. Consumption of Primary Energy in Japan, Spain and Switzerland
e1. Total Consumption
e2. Shares of the Different Primary Energies
e3. Consumption per Inhabitant
§ f. Remarks about Switzerland
f1. The Nature of an Industrialized Country
f2. Distribution of the Consumption of Usable Primary Energy
f3. Shares of Various Primary Energies Since 1910
f4. Dependence of the Energy Supply
§ g. Summary of Comparisons
§ h. Total Useful Energy
§ i. Distribution of the Consumption of Useful Energy
i1. According to Type
i2. According to User
§ j. Useful Energy in Usable Energy, or Useful Exergy
Chapter 4. Transformation of Energy
§ a. General Comments
§ b. Energy Chains
b1. Coal
b2. Petroleum
b3. Hydraulic Energy
b4. Nuclear Energy
b5. Solar Energy
§ c. Qualitative Ensemble of Transformations
c1. Case of Switzerland
c2. Possibilities of Transfer
§ d. Quantitative Aspect
d1. General Remarks
d2. Production of Heat from Hydrocarbons
d3. Graphical Representation and Hydraulic Analogy
d4. Comparison
§ e. Energy Balance Sheets and Flows
e1. Principle of the Balance Sheet
e2. A Particular Example
e3. Energy Flow
e4. Energy Flow in Switzerland
§ f. Energy Balance Sheets and Flows for Some Industrialized Countries
§ g. Distributed Energies
g1. By Type
g2. By User
§ h. Upgrading of Electricity
§ i. Production Chains of Useful Energy
i1. Production of Useful Heat
i2. Production of Mechanical Work
i3. Conclusions
Annex 4A Energy Flow in 1972 for Western and Eastern Europe
Annex 4B Primary Energy and Distributed Energy in Some Industrialized Countries (Switzerland, France, U.K., F.R.G., U.S.A.) and the Determination of the Reducing Factors for Fuels and Electricity
Chapter 5. Methods of Production
Introduction
Part 1. Large-Scale Methods in Current Use
§ a. Extraction and Preparation of Fuels
§ b. Production of Heat and Electricity
Part 2. Future or Supplementary Possibilities
§ c. Major Possibilities
§ d. Limited Possibilities
§ e. Direct Conversion Possibilities
§ f. Other Intermediate Forms
Chapter 6. Transport and Storage
Part 1. Transport
§ a. General Remarks
§ b. Ships
§ c. Pipelines
§ d. Rail and Road
§ e. Electric Lines
Part 2. Storage
§ f. Need for Storage
§ g. Chemical and Nuclear Energy
§ h. Mechanical Energy
§ i. Heat
§ j. Size of the Storage
§ k. Some General Remarks
Chapter 7. Electricity and Hydrocarbons
Part 1. Electricity
§ a. General Comments
§ b. Comparisons of Production and Consumption in the World and in Europe
§ c. Production of Some Collectivities or Countries
§ d. Situation in Switzerland
§ e. Periodical Variations in Consumption
§ f. Periodical Variations in Production in Switzerland
§ g. Adaptation of Production to Consumption
§ h. Large Networks and Interconnection
§ i. Consumption of Electricity and Gross National Income
§ j. Probable Evolution of Electricity Consumption
Part 2. Hydrocarbons
§ k. Petroleum and Derivatives
§ l. Natural Gas
Annex 7A Consumption of Electricity of 77 Countries in 1975
Chapter 8. The Cost of Energy
§ a. Introduction
Part 1. Calculation of the Cost of Energy and Determination of Profitability
§ b. Investments
§ c. Annual Charges
§ d. Cost and Value of the Production
Part 2. Numerical Examples
§ e. Investments for the Production of Primary Energy
§ f. Other Installations for the Capture and Transformation of Primary Energy
§ g. Specific Investments for the Production of Electricity
§ h. Investments for the Installations for Transporting and Storing Energy
§ i. World or National Investments
§ j. Cost of Energy
§ k. Petroleum and Petroleum Products
§ l. Uranium
§ m. Electricity
§ n. Cost of the transport of Energy
Chapter 9. Environment and Losses
§ a. Background
§ b. Safety and Accident Risk
b1. Some Distinctions
b2. Reminder of Some Definitions and Principles
b3. Methodology
b4. General Comparison of the Risks of Serious Accidents
b5. Conclusions
§ c. Attacks by Withdrawals from the Environment
§ d. Attacks Concomitant with Withdrawals
d1. Coal
d2. Petroleum
d3. Gas
d4. Hydraulic Energy
d5. Nuclear Energy
d6. Solar Energy
d7. Energy from the Seas and Winds and Geothermal Energy
§ e. Attacks Due to Effluents
§ f. Atmospheric Pollution
f1. Consumption of Air and Production of CO2
f2. Carbon Monoxide and Oxides of Nitrogen
f3. Oxides of Sulphur
f4. Unburned Matter and Particles
f5. Water Vapor
f6. Radioactive Effluents
f7. Heat
f8. Climate
f9. Important Final Remark
§ g. Water Pollution
g1. Rejected Heat
g2. Hydrocarbons
g3. Chemical and Radioactive Rejections
§ h. Wastes
§ i. Struggle against Losses
§ j. Fuel Heating Losses
j1. Reasons for this Discussion
j2. Systems Considered
j3. Entropy Cycles and Diagram
j4. Other operating temperatures
Annex 9A Examples of Rejections from an Electric Station
Annex 9B Psychological Reasons that May Arouse Irrational Fears in Public Opinion about the Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy
Chapter 10. Evolution and Perspectives
§ a. Reminder of the Causes of Growth In the World Consumption of Energy
§ b. Method of Assessment of Energy Needs
§ c. The Extent of the Resources and the Energy Crisis
§ d. Technological Evolution
§ e. Possible Instability of the Evolution
§ f. Bases of an Estimation of the Possible Evolution of Energy Consumption during the
Twenty-First Century
f1. Methodology
f2. Possible Evolution of the World Population
f3. Possible Evolution of Consumption per Inhabitant
§ g. Possible Evolution of the Total Consumption
g1. Extreme and Mean Cases
g2. Probable Hypotheses
§ h. Possibilities of Fulfilling the Needs of the Twenty-First Century
§ i. Possibilities Offered by Solar Energy
i1. Space for Solar Energy
i2. Investments Required
i3. Possible Rate of Development
i4. Economic Significance
i5. The Contribution of Solar Energy
§ j. Role of Fossil Fuels
§ k. Role of Nuclear Energy
§ l. Fulfillment of Needs in the Twenty-First Century on the Low Hypothesis
§ m. Conditions for Not Resorting to Nuclear Energy
§ n. Conclusions
Annex 10A Nuclear Energy. The Role of Breeder Reactors
Annex 10B Plutonium and the Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
Bibliography
Index