Energy: The Countdown

A Report to the Club of Rome: Thierry De Montbrial

1st Edition - January 1, 1979
Authors: Robert Lattès, Carroll Wilson
Language: English
Hardback ISBN:
9 7 8 - 0 - 0 8 - 0 2 4 2 2 5 - 5
Paperback ISBN:
9 7 8 - 1 - 4 8 3 1 - 2 1 7 9 - 6
eBook ISBN:
9 7 8 - 1 - 4 8 3 1 - 5 4 2 1 - 3

Energy: The Countdown raises the specter of a catastrophic energy crisis that could explode even before any comprehensive emergency plans are concerted. The goal is to make both… Read more

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Energy: The Countdown raises the specter of a catastrophic energy crisis that could explode even before any comprehensive emergency plans are concerted. The goal is to make both decision-makers and the public aware that there exists a real threat to human society in the form of a looming energy crisis. This book is comprised of 11 chapters and begins by emphasizing the importance of energy as the oxygen of economic life and how a shortage or limitation of energy resources can seriously endanger the world's economic development. The constraints that will limit the supply of certain types of energy are considered, along with the importance of long-term planning. The next section deals with the politics of energy, paying particular attention to the oil crisis and its impact on international relations since October 1973, together with the nuclear power crisis and the proliferation of nuclear weapons. Subsequent chapters explore the relationship between geopolitics and energy policy; the nature of the energy problem; global energy demand; energy sources such as coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy; and the possibility of an imbalanced oil market. The final chapter evaluates the economic effects of a massive increase in oil prices. This monograph will be of interest to energy policymakers and government officials.

Foreword

Acknowledgments

Recommendations

Preliminaries

Part One: The Past The Politics of Energy: The Oil and Nuclear Power Crisis

Chapter I. The Great Oil Adventure

I. The Basic Characteristics of the Oil Industry

II. The Birth and Hegemony of the Majors

III. Sharing the Oil Rent

Chapter II. The Oil Crisis and International Relations since October 1973

I. Fall 1973

II. Reactions to the October 1973 Events

III. 1974 and 1975: Confusion then Calm

IV. The CIEC

V. 1976-1978: Quiet on the Oil Front

VI. What Happened?

Chapter III. The Nuclear Energy Crisis

I. Why the Opposition to Nuclear Energy?

II. The Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

III. Remarks on the Nature of Nonproliferation

IV. A Few Conclusions

Chapter IV. Geopolitics and Energy Policy

I. Upheaval in the World Order

II. The Third World and OPEC

III. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

IV. The United States

V. The Other Energy-Importing Industrial Countries and the IEA

Part Two: The Future The Energy Crisis: Outlook and Scenarios

Chapter I. The Nature of the Energy Problem

I. Renewable and Nonrenewable Forms of Energy

II. Pollution and Degradation of Energy

III. Energy and Civilization

IV. A Necessary Decision

V. An Impasse?

Chapter II. Global Energy Demand

I. General Observations on the Relationship between Energy Demand and Economic Activity

II. Predicted Annual Energy Consumption to 2025

Chapter III. Toward an Imbalanced Oil Market

I. A Question of Method

II. The Decline in the Gross Increase in Reserves

III. The Adjustment of Supply and Demand

Chapter IV. Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear and Other Energy Sources

I. Natural Gas

II. Coal

III. Nuclear Energy

IV. Other Energy Sources

Chapter V. Anticipating the Second Energy Crisis to Try to Avoid it

I. A Second Crisis is Likely

II. Insurance against the Future

Chapter VI. Future Evolution of the Price of Energy

I. "The" Price of Energy: A Useful Fiction

II. The Principle of Marginal-Cost Pricing

III. Setting the Price of Energy and Distributing the Income in Industrial Countries

IV. The Need for International Cooperation

Chapter VII. The Economic Effects of a Massive Increase in the Price of Oil

I. The Effects of the Increase at the End of 1973

II. 1973 Crisis, Monetary Disorder and Threats of Protectionism

III. Future Shock

Summary and Conclusions

Appendices

Appendix I. Oil: Taxation Costs and Sharing the Rent

I. Tax Policy of the Oil-Producing Countries since Introduction of the Fifty-Fifty System

II. The Tax Policy Applicable to American Concessionaires

III. The Evolution of Oil Prices between 1860 and 1977

Appendix II. Units and Orders of Magnitude

I. Preliminary Remarks

II. Mechanical and Heating Units

III. Heating Value of Fuels and Energy Equivalents

IV. Order of Size of Electricity Consumption of a Few Common Appliances

Appendix III. Supplementary Illustrations and Tables

I. Per Capita Energy Consumption

II. Oil Requirements of Main Countries and Groups of Countries

III. Energy Consumption and Dependence of EEC Countries

IV. Economic Data

Bibliography

Index

Life Sciences

Physical Sciences & Engineering

Social Sciences & Humanities

Health

Energy: The Countdown

A Report to the Club of Rome: Thierry De Montbrial

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