Energy: The Countdown

A Report to the Club of Rome: Thierry De Montbrial

1st Edition - January 1, 1979
Authors: Robert Lattés, Carroll Wilson
Language: English
eBook ISBN:
9 7 8 - 1 - 4 8 3 1 - 3 8 3 2 - 9

Energy: The Countdown considers the possibility that a catastrophic energy crisis might become inevitable and could explode even before any comprehensive emergency plans are… Read more

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Energy: The Countdown considers the possibility that a catastrophic energy crisis might become inevitable and could explode even before any comprehensive emergency plans are concerted. The goal is to raise with both public opinion and decision-makers the consciousness that there exists a real threat to human society in the form of a looming energy crisis. This book is comprised of 11 chapters and begins by emphasizing energy as the oxygen of economic life, an essential requirement for the development of modern society, and how a shortage or limitation of energy resources can seriously endanger the world's economic development. The constraints that will limit the supply of certain types of energy are highlighted, along with the importance of long-term planning. The next section deals with the politics of energy, paying particular attention to the oil crisis and its impact on international relations since October 1973, along with the nuclear power crisis and the proliferation of nuclear weapons. The relationship between geopolitics and energy policy and the nature of the energy problem are also discussed, together with energy sources such as coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy. The final chapter assesses the economic effects of a massive increase in oil prices. This monograph will be of interest to energy policymakers and government officials.

ForewordAcknowledgmentsRecommendationsPreliminariesPart One: The Past The Politics of Energy: The Oil and Nuclear Power Crisis Chapter I. The Great Oil Adventure I. The Basic Characteristics of the Oil Industry II. The Birth and Hegemony of the Majors III. Sharing the Oil Rent Chapter II. The Oil Crisis and International Relations since October 1973 I. Fall 1973 II. Reactions to the October 1973 Events III. 1974 and 1975: Confusion then Calm IV. The CIEC V. 1976-1978: Quiet on the Oil Front VI. What Happened? Chapter III. The Nuclear Energy Crisis I. Why the Opposition to Nuclear Energy? II. The Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons III. Remarks on the Nature of Nonproliferation IV. A Few Conclusions Chapter IV. Geopolitics and Energy Policy I. Upheaval in the World Order II. The Third World and OPEC III. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries IV. The United States V. The Other Energy-Importing Industrial Countries and the IEAPart Two: The Future The Energy Crisis: Outlook and Scenarios Chapter I. The Nature of the Energy Problem I. Renewable and Nonrenewable Forms of Energy II. Pollution and Degradation of Energy III. Energy and Civilization IV. A Necessary Decision V. An Impasse? Chapter II. Global Energy Demand I. General Observations on the Relationship between Energy Demand and Economic Activity II. Predicted Annual Energy Consumption to 2025 Chapter III. Toward an Imbalanced Oil Market I. A Question of Method II. The Decline in the Gross Increase in Reserves III. The Adjustment of Supply and Demand Chapter IV. Natural Gas, Coal, Nuclear and Other Energy Sources I. Natural Gas II. Coal III. Nuclear Energy IV. Other Energy Sources Chapter V. Anticipating the Second Energy Crisis to Try to Avoid it I. A Second Crisis is Likely II. Insurance against the Future Chapter VI. Future Evolution of the Price of Energy I. "The" Price of Energy: A Useful Fiction II. The Principle of Marginal-Cost Pricing III. Setting the Price of Energy and Distributing the Income in Industrial Countries IV. The Need for International Cooperation Chapter VII. The Economic Effects of a Massive Increase in the Price of Oil I. The Effects of the Increase at the End of 1973 II. 1973 Crisis, Monetary Disorder and Threats of Protectionism III. Future ShockSummary and ConclusionsAppendices Appendix I. Oil: Taxation Costs and Sharing the Rent I. Tax Policy of the Oil-Producing Countries since Introduction of the Fifty-Fifty System II. The Tax Policy Applicable to American Concessionaires III. The Evolution of Oil Prices between 1860 and 1977 Appendix II. Units and Orders of Magnitude I. Preliminary Remarks II. Mechanical and Heating Units III. Heating Value of Fuels and Energy Equivalents IV. Order of Size of Electricity Consumption of a Few Common Appliances Appendix III. Supplementary Illustrations and Tables I. Per Capita Energy Consumption II. Oil Requirements of Main Countries and Groups of Countries III. Energy Consumption and Dependence of EEC Countries IV. Economic DataBibliographyIndex