Discovering Causal Structure

About This Book

Foreword

Acknowledgments

Part I : Artificial Intelligence and Nonexperimental Science

1. The Problems of Science without Experiments

1.1 The Limits of Experimentation

1.2 The Limits of Human Judgment

1.3 The Artificial Intelligence Solution

2. The Case against Causal Modeling

2.1 The Critical Reaction

2.2 Making Sense of Causality

2.3 Causes, Indicators, and the Interpretation of Latent Variables

2.4 The Importance of Experiment

2.5 Justifying Assumptions

2.6 Linear Theories Are Literally False

2.7 Conclusion

3. Objections to Discovery by Computer

3.1 Introduction

3.2 The General Objections

3.3 No Peeking

Part II : The TETRAD Program

4. Causal and Statistical Models

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Directed Graphs and Causal Models

4.3 Statistical Models from Causal Models

4.4 Treks and Coordinating Path Effects

4.5 Constraints on Correlations

4.6 Correlated Errors Are Not Equivalent to Direct Effects

4.7 Statistical Issues, Briefly Considered

5. The Structure and Method of TETRAD

5.1 The Methodological Principles That Underlie TETRAD

5.2 How the Methodological Principles Are Realized in TETRAD

5.3 Search Strategies for Finding Good Causal Models

5.4 A Sketch of the TETRAD Program

5.5 How to Use TETRAD'S Output

5.6 TETRAD and Other Search Procedures

5.7 Future Developments

6. What TETRAD Can Do

6.1 Alienation

6.2 A Problem Using Simulated Data

6.3 Causal Order from Correlations

6.4 Kohn's Study and Temporal Order among Interview Questions

7. Simulation Studies

7.1 A Simulated Case

7.2 Distinguishing Correlation from Causation

7.3 Locating Connected Variables

8. Case Studies

8.1 Introduction

8.2 Industrial and Political Development

8.3 Measuring the Authoritarian Personality

8.4 Alternatives to Regression Models

8.5 Introducing Latent Variables: Longitudinal Data with SAT Scores

8.6 Roll Call Voting

8.7 The Effects of Summer Head Start

8.8 Achievement, Ability, and Approval

8.9 The Stability of Alienation

9. A Brief History of Heuristic Search in Applied Statistics

10. Mathematical Foundations

10.1 The Algorithm

10.2 Proofs of Correctness of the Algorithms Employed by TETRAD

Part III : Using TETRAD, EQS, and LISREL

11. Using TETRAD with EQS and LISREL

11.1 LISREL and Its Restrictions

11.2 Overcoming the Restrictions

11.3 EQS

12. Running TETRAD

12.1 Installing TETRAD

12.2 Entering and Exiting TETRAD

12.3 Getting Help

12.4 Input Files

12.5 Output Files

12.6 View and Edit

12.7 The Run Command and Menus

12.8 User Interrupts

12.9 Errors

12.10 TETRAD Commands

12.11 Running TETRAD in Batch Mode

12.12 List of Commands

12.13 Command Summaries

Appendix: The Grammar of the Input

About the Authors

References

Index