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Cognitive Sophistication and the Development of Judgment and Decision-Making
1st Edition - October 27, 2021
Author: Maggie E. Toplak
Paperback ISBN:9780128166369
9 7 8 - 0 - 1 2 - 8 1 6 6 3 6 - 9
eBook ISBN:9780128166451
9 7 8 - 0 - 1 2 - 8 1 6 6 4 5 - 1
Cognitive Sophistication and the Development of Judgment and Decision-Making reviews the existing literature on the development of reasoning, judgment and decision-making, with a… Read more
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Cognitive Sophistication and the Development of Judgment and Decision-Making reviews the existing literature on the development of reasoning, judgment and decision-making, with a primary focus on measures from the heuristics and biases tradition. The book presents a model based on cognitive sophistication to examine the development of judgment and decision-making, including age related differences in developmental samples, associations with intellectual abilities and executive functions, and associations with dispositional tendencies that support judgment and decision-making. Additional sections cover the empirical findings of a longitudinal study conducted over seven years that tie together the discussed aspects related to cognitive sophistication.
This book will provide a much-needed description of the theoretical and conceptual issues, a review of empirical findings, and an integrative summary of the implications for developmental models of reasoning, judgment and decision-making.
Explores whether individual heuristics and biases are associated
Reviews individual differences in cognitive abilities and thinking dispositions
Examines reasoning from the lens of cognitive sophistication
Discusses the implications for models, including dual process models
Tests and elaborates using empirical findings from a longitudinal study
Researchers and students who work in neuroscience, cognitive science, psychology, philosophy, and linguistics
Cover image
Title page
Table of Contents
Copyright
Dedication
Acknowledgments
1: Defining cognitive sophistication in the development of judgment and decision-making
Abstract
Measuring miserly information processing in adult samples: Implications for developmental samples
Laying the groundwork for studying the development of judgment and decision-making
The assessment of rational thinking in developmental samples: Using adult models and stimulus equivalence
Process and knowledge as key dimensions for a taxonomy of judgment and decision-making performance: Task level factors
Cognitive sophistication and the development of judgment and decision-making: Individual level factors
Longitudinal developmental study description
Summary and organization of book
References
2: Foundations for the development of judgment and decision-making: Cognitive abilities, thinking dispositions, and specific knowledge
Abstract
Processing that supports rational thinking: Cognitive abilities and thinking dispositions
Cognitive abilities: Intelligence and executive function task performance
Thinking dispositions
How cognitive abilities and thinking dispositions index sources of cognitive failure on judgment and decision-making tasks
Development of cognitive abilities: Intelligence and executive function task performance
Development of thinking dispositions
Specific knowledge: Facilitators and inhibitors
Knowledge facilitator: Probabilistic numeracy
Knowledge inhibitor: Superstitious thinking
Summary: Foundations for the development of judgment and decision-making
References
3: Development of the ability to detect and override miserly information processing
Abstract
Dual process models and miserly information processing in adult samples
Extending dual process models from adult samples to developmental samples
The developmental origins of miserly information processing
The assessment of resistance to miserly information processing in developmental samples: Ratio bias
The assessment of resistance to miserly information processing in developmental samples: Belief bias syllogisms
The assessment of resistance to miserly information processing in developmental samples: Cognitive reflection
Confidence ratings on miserly information processing tasks
Summary: Resistance to miserly information processing as an additional foundation to support the development of rational thinking performance
References
4: Recognizing the diagnosticity of statistical information in development: Base rate sensitivity
Abstract
Base rate sensitivity as a measure of rational thinking
Base rate sensitivity and development
Base rate sensitivity and correlations with individual differences
Data patterns from longitudinal developmental study
Summary: The development of base rate sensitivity
References
5: Preference for larger delayed rewards over smaller immediate rewards in development: Prudent temporal discounting
Abstract
Prudent temporal discounting as a measure of rational thinking
Temporal discounting and development
Temporal discounting correlations with individual differences
Data patterns from longitudinal developmental study
Summary: The development of prudent temporal discounting
References
6: Understanding descriptive invariance in development: Framing effects
Abstract
Resistance to framing as a direct measure of rational thinking
Framing effects and development
Data patterns from developmental longitudinal study
Summary: Framing effects and development
References
7: Correlations between judgment and decision-making tasks in developmental samples
Abstract
Correlations between judgment and decision-making paradigms in adult samples
Correlations between judgment and decision-making paradigms in developmental samples
Data patterns from developmental longitudinal study
Summary of Toplak and Flora (2020): The developmental trajectory of a Resistance to Cognitive Biases Composite
Separating rational thinking measures from resistance to miserly information processing: The Rational Thinking Composite
Summary: Associations between rational thinking tasks and predictors of performance in developmental samples
References
8: Real-world correlates of judgment and decision-making paradigms in developmental samples
Abstract
Correlations with real-world outcomes in adult samples
Correlations with real-world outcomes in developmental samples
Data patterns from developmental longitudinal study
Positive outcomes
Negative outcomes
Male/female differences in real-world behaviors
Summary: Considerations and promising next steps of real-world correlates and judgment and decision-making in developmental samples
References
9: The emergence of rational thinking in development: Conclusions and future directions
Abstract
Context for the operationalization and empirical study of judgment and decision-making in developmental samples
Cognitive sophistication: Age and individual differences in cognitive abilities and thinking dispositions as predictors of rational thinking in developmental samples
Resistance to miserly information processing as a measure of detection and override in developmental samples
Defining task characteristics for developmental samples: Process and knowledge in rational thinking tasks
Summary: Does rational thinking improve over the course of development?
Implications for models of the development of rational thinking
Real-world correlates and implications for training rational thinking in developmental samples
References
Appendix A: Tasks and measures used in developmental longitudinal study
Cognitive abilities (Chapter 2)
Thinking dispositions (Chapter 2)
Specific knowledge: Probabilistic numeracy (Chapter 2)
Miserly information processing tasks (Chapter 3)
Sample problem added at Time 3
Cognitive reflection test—Sample items
Calibration question following cognitive reflection task at Time 2
Belief bias syllogisms
Calibration question after belief bias syllogisms (Time 2 and Time 3)
Base rate sensitivity (Chapter 4)
Temporal discounting (Chapter 5)
Attribute framing problems (Chapter 6)
Other side thinking task
Procedure across all three timepoints
References
Appendix B: Cross-sectional age comparisons on cognitive ability, thinking disposition, probabilistic numeracy and superstitious thinking measures
Cognitive ability measures: Intelligence and executive function task performance
Thinking dispositions
Specific knowledge: Probabilistic numeracy
Superstitious Thinking Scale
Appendix C: Real-world outcomes questionnaire
Youth report (Time 2 and Time 3)
Parent report
References
References
Index
No. of pages: 298
Language: English
Published: October 27, 2021
Imprint: Academic Press
Paperback ISBN: 9780128166369
eBook ISBN: 9780128166451
MT
Maggie E. Toplak
Dr. Toplak’s research spans cognitive science and clinical research. She studies cognitive science models of rational thinking and decision-making in typically developing samples and in developmental psychopathology. She has published over 50 peer-reviewed papers and book chapters across the fields of decision-making and clinical research, including two books: Individual Differences in Judgement and Decision-Making: A Developmental Perspective (Psychology Press, 2016) and The Rationality Quotient: Toward a Test of Rational Thinking (MIT Press, 2018), the latter of which won the 2017 PROSE Award in Education Theory.
Affiliations and expertise
Associate Professor, Clinical Developmental Program, Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada