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A Historical Introduction to Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases
Seminal Papers in Epidemiology
1st Edition - October 18, 2016
Author: Ivo M. Foppa
Paperback ISBN:9780128022603
9 7 8 - 0 - 1 2 - 8 0 2 2 6 0 - 3
eBook ISBN:9780128024997
9 7 8 - 0 - 1 2 - 8 0 2 4 9 9 - 7
A Historical Introduction to Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases: Seminal Papers in Epidemiology offers step-by-step help on how to navigate the important historical… Read more
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A Historical Introduction to Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases: Seminal Papers in Epidemiology offers step-by-step help on how to navigate the important historical papers on the subject, beginning in the 18th century. The book carefully, and critically, guides the reader through seminal writings that helped revolutionize the field.
With pointed questions, prompts, and analysis, this book helps the non-mathematician develop their own perspective, relying purely on a basic knowledge of algebra, calculus, and statistics. By learning from the important moments in the field, from its conception to the 21st century, it enables readers to mature into competent practitioners of epidemiologic modeling.
Presents a refreshing and in-depth look at key historical works of mathematical epidemiology
Provides all the basic knowledge of mathematics readers need in order to understand the fundamentals of mathematical modeling of infectious diseases
Includes questions, prompts, and answers to help apply historical solutions to modern day problems
Professional epidemiologists, graduate and postgraduate students in epidemiology
Dedication
Introduction
Motivation and short history (of this book)
Structure and suggested use of the book
Target audience
Mathematical background
Miscellaneous remarks
References
Acknowledgments
1: D. Bernoulli: A pioneer of epidemiologic modeling (1760)
Abstract
1.1. Bernoulli and the “speckled monster”
Appendix 1.A. Answers
Appendix 1.B. Supplementary material
References
2: P.D. En'ko: An early transmission model (1889)
Abstract
2.1. Introduction
2.2. Assumptions
2.3. The model
2.4. Simulation model
Appendix 2.A. Answers
Appendix 2.B. Supplementary material
References
3: W.H. Hamer (1906) and H. Soper (1929): Why diseases come and go
Abstract
3.1. Introduction
3.2. Hamer: Variability and persistence
3.3. Soper: Periodicity in disease prevalence
Appendix 3.A.
Appendix 3.B. Answers
Appendix 3.C. Supplementary material
References
4: W.O. Kermack and A.G. McKendrick: A seminal contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics (1927)
Abstract
4.1. Introduction
4.2. General theory: (2) through (7)
4.3. Special cases: (8) through (13)
Appendix 4.A.
Appendix 4.B. Answers
Appendix 4.C. Supplementary material
References
5: R. Ross (1910, 1911) and G. Macdonald (1952) on the persistence of malaria
Abstract
5.1. Introduction
5.2. Ross: What keeps malaria going?
5.3. George Macdonald: Malaria equilibrium beyond Ross
Appendix 5.A. Answers
References
6: M. Bartlett (1949), N.T. Bailey (1950, 1953) and P. Whittle (1955): Pioneers of stochastic transmission models
Abstract
6.1. Introduction: Stochastic transmission models
6.2. Bailey: A simple stochastic transmission model
6.3. M.S. Bartlett: Infectious disease transmission as stochastic process
6.4. Bailey revisited: Final size of a stochastic epidemic
6.5. P. Whittle: Comment on Bailey
Appendix 6.A. Answers
Appendix 6.B. Supplementary material
References
7: O. Diekmann, J. Heesterbeek, and J.A. Metz (1991) and P. Van den Driessche and J. Watmough (2002): The spread of infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations
Abstract
7.1. Introduction: Non-homogeneous transmission
7.2. Diekmann, Heesterbeek and Metz: The basic reproduction number in heterogeneous populations I
7.3. P. Van den Driessche and J. Watmough: Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission
Appendix 7.A. Answers
Appendix 7.B. Supplementary material
References
Index
No. of pages: 214
Language: English
Published: October 18, 2016
Imprint: Academic Press
Paperback ISBN: 9780128022603
eBook ISBN: 9780128024997
IF
Ivo M. Foppa
Ivo Foppa studied medicine in Bern, Switzerland (1981-87) and received his doctorate in medicine in 1991. Between 1988 and 1994, he worked as a resident in various hospitals in Switzerland and as an epidemiologist at the University of Bern. In 1994, he received a fellowship from the Swiss Science Foundation for training in epidemiology at the Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA. He received a MSc in 1995 and was awarded a Doctor of Science (ScD) degree for his dissertation entitled "Emergence and Persistence: Epidemiologic Aspects of Tick-Borne Zoonoses in Eastern Switzerland" in November, 2001. He taught epidemiology at the Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina (2002-2007) and at the Tulane School of Public Health and Tropical Public Health (2008-2011). His research focused on the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases such as West Nile virus. Since 2011, he works as a Sr. Research Scientist (contractor) in the Epidemiology and Prevention Branch, Influenza Division/NCIRD/CDC where he has been working on methodological issues associated with influenza vaccine effectiveness assessment as well as question relevant to the quantification of the public health burden from influenza.
Affiliations and expertise
Adjunct Associate Professor, Emory University, Atlanta, GA