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Advances in Weather and Climate Forecast Verification
1st Edition - February 1, 2023
Authors: Eric Gilleland, Barbara G. Brown
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Advances in Weather and Climate Forecast Verification is a resource for researchers and practitioners who are applying traditional and new methods of forecast evaluation. It… Read more
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Advances in Weather and Climate Forecast Verification is a resource for researchers and practitioners who are applying traditional and new methods of forecast evaluation. It offers information that will make it possible for researchers and others to apply the newest forecast methods; rather than searching for information in each individual method, providing the information needed to apply all of the techniques in one place. Selection of the appropriate method to apply to a particular problem is facilitated by comparisons of the methods and their results, which will be included in the book. With these skills in hand, readers can make improvements in both their modelling and the evaluation of the results.
Provides a single resource on forecast evaluation, reviewing both traditional and new techniques
Summarizes information, including terminology and methodologies, in a clear and accessible way
Appropriate for new and experienced practitioners, as well as producers and users of forecasts
Demonstrates techniques for forecasting and modeling extreme weather to produce better quality model outputs when the sample size is not very large
Operational forecasters, students and researchers in atmosphere and climate, appropriate for courses covering forecast verification where available, meteorologists
1. Introduction 2. Statistical Basis for Verification3. Traditional verification for deterministic forecasts4. Traditional verification for probabilistic forecasts5. Diagnostic tools for univariate measures6. Background, motivation, and overview of spatial forecast verification methods7. Neighborhood methods8. Scale separation methods9. Location measures10. Field deformation11. Feature-based: identifying features, merging, matching, properties, and property comparisons12. Feature-based: direct comparisons between matched features: CRA, MODE13. Feature-based: spatial contingency table14. Spatial Prediction Comparison Test, including image warping loss15. Additional topics: hurricane forecasts, S2S, observation uncertainty
No. of pages: 308
Published: February 1, 2023
Paperback ISBN: 9780128138533
eBook ISBN: 9780128138540
Dr Eric Gilleland is a project scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in the Research Applications Laboratory (RAL), where he has performed research on statistical methods for forecast verification, especially spatial methods for high-resolution models, as well as applications of extreme value analysis, since 2002. Gilleland has a Ph.D. in statistics from the Colorado State University.
Affiliations and expertise
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Barbara G. Brown
Barbara G. Brown is a project scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in the Research Applications Laboratory (RAL), where she has led efforts on development and application of methods for weather and climate forecast evaluation. She also has extensive experience providing tutorials on verification methods. Brown has MS degrees in environmental science (University of Virginia, 1979) and statistics (Oregon State University, 1983).